Trump is going to claim he won and the close polling proves it, no matter what the final margin is for Harris when she wins. The media will get the clicks either way. I don’t think these polls are manufactured to keep them close. It’s just that polling in every cycle gets less accurate due to a number of factors.
15 Likes
I doubt that will work.
5 Likes
Have you checked with the Dem co-chairs to see if this is for real?
From the outside, it reads like ratfucking.
29 Likes
True – I guess this is a case where “projection” gets really, well, WEIRD.
4 Likes
Mmm…. Bagels and lonks
4 Likes
That’s exactly right. The right wing feels justified in criticizing the 2020 election as illegitimate because states took measures during Covid to make it easier for (‘those’) people to vote.
10 Likes
The King of Inflation.
3 Likes
Well it is a two party system.
1 Like
Exactly “send us your trash”!
10 Likes
I think we already know. The answer for those voting for him is “He doesn’t mean it.”
Followed by “He’ll give me what I want, and Harris won’t,” whether it’s the price of eggs returning to what they were in 2019, or stopping the murder of babies in the womb, or whatever the gripe is. He doesn’t mean it, he’s just saying that to get elected.
19 Likes
If I was Kamala Harris’ campaign manager I would be thrilled to see that the last NYT poll showed a tie. That’s the best way to get her supporters to the voting booth and NOT throw away their votes on hopeless third party candidates.
35 Likes
This is a question for TPMers with professional chops in statistics.
Josh Marshall has talked a lot about polling and aggregates of different polls, and how they can be manipulated and falsely interpreted.
The method of Nate Silver and many others is to average all the polls as a way of cancelling out method errors in individual polls. But is that actually correct? Is making an estimate of separate estimates, in effect treating them as if they are a singular piece of data, mathematically valid? IOW, instead of narrowing the margin of error, does it really tell us anything?
ADDENDUM: the question has nothing to do with whether Silver is personally biased, or whether deliberately slanted polls are included. I’m asking whether “averaging a series of averages” is an inherently false statistical methodology.
21 Likes
I will be checking today.
7 Likes
I think you’re largely correct on that. But what I don’t understand is how saying these insane fascist things helps him get elected. It shouldn’t. With anyone.
I also love the combo of “he doesn’t mean it” with “he tells it like it is.” Can’t be both.
27 Likes
Kitty is wise.
8 Likes
’ bronze poop emoji’
Is this tongue in cheek or something more pro-tcf?
public gathering permit provided to NBC News by the National Park Service says Julia Jimenez-Pyzik of Civic Crafted LLC applied to place it there from today through Oct. 31.
I haven’t been able to find out anything about the person or the company.
5 Likes