How New Mexico Jump Started Aggressive COVID-19 Testing | Talking Points Memo

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FWIW, my toy model did a pretty good job of figuring where we are now (from March 24)

Texas Lt. Gov. Urges Old People To Sacrifice Themselves To Save Economy Amid Coronavirus

Here is a repost of something I posted earlier updated with better numbers (Numbers are based on March 21) Here is a fast estimate that is the zeroth order model for figuring out where we are Current deaths 455 related to number of cases 2 weeks ago, an average mortality ~2.5% means 40 times that many cases 2 weeks ago, i.e. 10,000 Doubling rate is 2-4 days, 2 weeks is ~5 doublings (3 day doubling) Current estimated cases in US 320,000 Estimated cases in 2 weeks taking into account social d…

Does anyone really think that the reported cases are not a factor of 5 low?