Here is a repost of something I posted earlier updated with better numbers (Numbers are based on March 21)
Here is a fast estimate that is the zeroth order model for figuring out where we are
Current deaths 455 related to number of cases 2 weeks ago, an average mortality ~2.5% means 40 times that many cases 2 weeks ago, i.e. 10,000
Doubling rate is 2-4 days, 2 weeks is ~5 doublings (3 day doubling)
Current estimated cases in US 320,000
Estimated cases in 2 weeks taking into account social distance factor -> 4.5 days or ~3-doublings in all gives 2.6 million cases by ~April 7th…
No social distancing effect means 5-doublings or ~10,200,000 cases…
Now you know why the experts are scared shitlless…
This not meant to be a rigourous estimate, but with exponentials, a factor of 2 is a matter of a few days…
Currently NY and Georgia have 2-day doubling, US is 3-day, California is 4-day
Coronavirus Deaths by U.S. State and Country Over Time: Daily Tracking
Compare the number of deaths and their rate of increase over time in the places the virus has hit hardest so far.
Stay smart, stay alert, stay safe…