The irony of all of this song and dance is that Dems will end up doing exactly what McConnell did on SCOTUS Justice confirmations: waive the 60 vote requirement as a one-off for HR 1/S1 and get 51 votes to back it up. Such waivers have happened many times in the history of the Senate. Reid did it for district court judges. No permanent reform of the filibuster is needed to do this.
Manchin doesn’t seem that interested in a creative reform to the filibuster that would preserve it (such as my idea of writing it into the rules of the Senate and giving the majority leader the option to waive the 60 vote requirement on up to 3 non reconciliation bills per Congressional term). However, Manchin seems open to something on HR 1/S1 otherwise Schumer wouldn’t be so vocal about it and put it in the hands of a fairly well known Senator like Klobuchar.
Manchin’s first priority in maintaining the filibuster is to avoid having to vote on a Sanders/Warren hard left agenda. He can’t afford for the national party to be branded as too far left. That kills him in WV even if he votes ‘no’ on all the items.
His second priority in maintaining the filibuster is to have leverage and be taken seriously on every major vote. That’s what he has right now.
Reading the body language of the Senators, I think there is momentum for fixing the filibuster because Manchin has signaled his openness to a one off waiver of the rule for a top priority. A lot of Dems want an actual reform of the rule to apply to a wider list of priorities, but Manchin might not go there at this point, but he will abide his Majority Leader’s set of priorities. At the moment, I think that’s HR 1/S1. Voting rights are critical. It also won’t be unpopular in WV.
The republicans have been so monolithic in opposing even the most reasonable legislation, they are making it far easier to limit the filibuster by demonstrating how radically it has been abused.
I don’t know the answer to term limits, but these Senators…even on our side of the aisle…get so entrenched and are there so long. They have all kinds of influences, even if they came in as angels and stuck to their principals pretty well, and still vote on most issues they way we want them to. They still have influences like clubishness, congeniality, comity, big-time money conflicts, seductive proximity to power, they start believing what a big deal they are and how they are shaping society and commerce. Because they are rubbing shoulders with big-deal people and they think ‘they’ can shape the world and will use their power for good even if they have to make some compromises. They don’t trust a newer echelon; or that some other/new person would use their influence quite as well.
That so many can just keep their seats, decade after decade until they are approaching 90 shows there are plenty of unfair variables in their favor. I know the mantra that “elections ARE term limits”, and it just doesn’t cut it. Even the elections, for lots of reasons, aren’t really “fair”. Incumbency and power and money tilt that fair playing field mightily, almost insurmountably. I don’t want to boot powerful Dems, either, but I feel the longer they are there, about 1.25% a year of their effectiveness and true-path are affected.
I know, and I don’t know what the answer is/should be.
Just saying there doesn’t appear to be any solution, and no avoiding, how these terribly old people hold so much power. I understand the Senate is designed to not be radical, but even on our side of the aisle we are getting fossilized representation from people - owing to their advanced age - who are disposed to avoiding all risk, having short-term vision, and in a fearful/xtra-cautious mode. Not to mention all the things I listed above about their constant massage from power, money, and club life. The job is so prestigious and perk-laden, they will hang on until grim death because it is…allowed.
Republicans would whack the filibuster as soon as it was advantageous for them to do so. They’d also turn right back around and reinstate it if the Dems looked to take the Senate back in the same way GOP controlled state houses take away power form Dem governors and then give it back to GOP ones.
