This report is nonsense. Nate Silver and Dave Wasserman both claimed that the Dems need an 8 point popular vote advantage to win control, and that was before PA was redistricted. After that happened, the margin became just under 7. Also this statement - “Democrats would have to win larger than any sort of recent midterm wave — almost double what they got in 2006 — in order to win a narrow majority" is factually incorrect based on their own numbers. Dems had an 8 point win on generic ballot in 2006, which is 16 when doubled, way more than the 11 point win they claimed they needed. Brennan Report can make the case against gerrymandering without resorting to making shit up and stating things that are so easily disproven.
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Your response illustrates perfectly why this sort of approach—i.e. construct a study with assumptions guaranteed to maximize the difficulties in the Democrats’ position—is counter-productive. For the resulting bad news rather than encouraging Democrats to try harder just serves to discourage them.
This is basic human psychology—you need hope and positive reinforcement to engage in massive long-term efforts. We need to be given a clear map for victory and assurance that this is really doable. Shrieking “We’re losing, we’re losing, we’re finished unless a miracle happens!” is a sure- fire recipe for defeat.
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Just to clarify the ridiculousness of this report, I will just say that Dems should gain 4 or 5 seats in PA alone. They’ll probably gain 2 or 3 in New Jersey. Comstock is toast in VA and Brat could be as well (I won’t include that one in the final tally though). Dems should gain 2 in Illinois and 1 in Iowa. Dems should be able to flip at least 1 in Texas. There’s a couple in Florida that they should win. Haven’t even touched California yet, where there’s at least 6 they should win not including Nunes. That’s about 20 there that are low hanging fruit. They only need 4 more to flip. Gerrymandering will hurt the Dems in this coming election, but this report blows it way out of proportion.
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Exactly - this report should not have seen the light of day. It will just suppress turnout.
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Please read Wasserman’s twitter - he’s already beaten me to the punch on this.
As you can see, these kind of articles really, REALLY piss me off.
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Nate Cohn also disputes this
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Where is the link to this report???
Oh, here it is–
You’re not alone. I have a co-worker who would come in from time to time with some outrageous fact about Hillary’s opponent, and I would laugh and say “bring it on.” Because, pessimist that I am, I couldn’t believe that people would vote this buffoon into office.
If every poll before november 2018 next year shows an 80% victory for Dems I will not believe it until I see them all sworn in. It was the first time I was confident about an election outcome. It was the last time I was confident about an election outcome.
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Ordinarily, one must go to Rasmussen to find math of this quality.
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If that is the dynamic, expect very far right republicans winning in the primaries in those suburbs which might increase turnout by the left, and some moderate repubs (against the repub candidate/office holder).
@littlegirlblue and the impression in the aftermath of the march the attack/tone-deafness response from the NRA and GOP figures will leave in a lasting way on both the kids and their parents. The kids did a great job of stating caring more about kids lives than guns shouldn’t be a democrat/republican thing - but the responses/attacks from the right turn it into one. I was a freshman in college, and too young to vote, in 1980 - but the impression of Reagan (yuck) on some of my college peers lasted for decades - not dying out until the era of W finally erased their ‘positive’ sense/feeling towards the GOP because of Reagan.
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she was ‘cold’ and ‘too shrill’ - not like the warm and quietly thoughtful statesman we have in the white house now.
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Just remember the Republicans themselves are afraid. They are dropping out like crazy and know they are in trouble. No matter what happens in the midterms, and I believe we will take the House, we never give up, we never stop trying. No matter how long or hard the fight we must save our democracy.
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maybe, but farmers have been complaining since 1800 about the gubment. What actually happens, like in Kansas, seems to make no impression. As long as environmental regulations about runoff, antibiotic use, and pesticides keeps their conglomerations able to leak poison into the water table…as my millenial friends says “welp”.
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In 1979 and 80 I lived in France. The French were incredulous that RR, an actor who had starred in a movie with a chimp, could even be running for the Presidency. I laughed about it, assured them that it would never happen. If it did someone would shoot him- I was right on that- it was an impossibility! I came back in time for the election and RR won every state but I think Rhode Island. In 16 I felt the same about trump, IMPOSSIBLE! I have no faith in elections at this point, but if everyone who opposed these crooks actually gets off their asses and votes I think the Dems could see that tsunami, IF.
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I have a friend who lives in a very red part of our state that always votes for Republicans. It is frustrating for her but she votes anyway. That is what we should all do no matter what the predictions. You don’t have bitching rights if you don’t vote.
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They still vote for the nut jobs who do this to them and will continue to do so. I don’t feel the least bit sorry for them. China is smart in going after these red states in their “trade war” retribution. Hit the idiots hard enough and they might actually stop voting against their own best interests. Don’t hold your breath though.
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Query to @pluckyinky: Your take on talk of Matt Jones running against McConnell in 2020?
This showed up in Politico today: https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/03/25/adam-jones-kentucky-mitch-mcconnell-sports-radio-217656
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“The report says that for Democrats to achieve an 11 percentage point national victory margin, they would need to increase their vote share by at least 7 percentage points over their 2016 totals in about a dozen states where Republicans generally had fared well, including Texas and Ohio.”
There ya go
– just another
7 percentage points
by November’s elections right?
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Dem Archie Parnell can win over Ralph Norman, R in SC-5. Mulvaney won that seat in 2010 over John Spratt, D who had held the seat since 1982. Norman won the special election in 2017 by only 2500 votes over Parnell. Democrats are energized by their fear and loathing of Trump. With a decent GOTV effort, Parnell can win.
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If it happened 40 years ago, it can happen now. There are lot more Americans than there were 40 years ago, and we’re the majority.
There is more than one way to look at this.
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