Well they have to do something to keep the âhorseraceâ narrative alive. It wonât be a wave, it will be a tsunami.
Itâs possible that Iâm 100% wrong, but from my perspective, an 11-point advantage seems extremely doable given recent elections. Plus the anger thatâs driving people is something not seen in more than 40 years.
âDemocrats would have to win larger than any sort of recent midterm wave â almost double what they got in 2006 â in order to win a narrow majority.â
âSo whatâs your point?â asked Conor Lamb, Doug Jones, and half the Virginia statehouse.
So we all just need to vote like our lives depend on it. We will.
I am a die-hard political pessimist and think this wave will be something unseen since pretty much ever.
When we bought our house, the realtor kept telling us not to expect to win the bidding, donât get our hopes up, etc etc. We bought that house. To this day, I think that asshole is just that, an asshole. Instead of helping focus us and help us accomplish our goal, he instead kept throwing up road-blocks and warnings. Yea, we know we might not win it, thanks for pointing that out, asshole. This article is that realtor.
Not a reasonable basis of projection.
âThe analysis is based on an assumption that as a political party increases its share of the statewide vote, it will see a similar percentage increase in most congressional districts.â
The Brennan Center is trying to maximize the threat to fair elections posed by R gerrymandering, which is fair enough. But to do so, they used an unrealistic basis for their projection of the effects of that gerrymander in order to exaggerate the effects. Those effects are real, just not as large as projected.
Any increase in nationwide performance for one party is not going to be evenly distributed. Districts vary, a lot, in how many swing voters they contain, and just how âswingyâ they really are. An overall national increase in one partyâs support is going to go disproportionally to districts with lots of swing voters. And those districts with lots of swing voters tend to be swing districts in the sense that baseline party performance is closer than it is in districts that donât have a lot of swing voters.
Bottom line, yes, gerrymandering has made it harder for Ds than for Rs to get a majority in the House even with a majority of the national vote. But aggressive gerrymandering creates a lot of districts that are relatively marginal in their loyalty. Itâs not going to take a national 11% swing to get a majority, because smaller national swings are going to go disproportionally to these marginal districts, while leaving performance in extreme, safe, districts, less affectedâŚ
40 years? Pfffttt! There hasnât been something like Trump on the political scene EVER.
Every time these predictions come up I want to believe my gut instincts are correct; that the Dems will in fact take the House and Senate. But, then I remind myself that with 100% of my being back in 2016 I KNEW, just KNEW there was no way a criminal like Trump could EVER get elected. Itâs really screwed up my belief in my political judgment.
He got three million fewer votes than his opponent, if that helps.
The well intentioned people at the Brennan Center donât know this: Participants in March For Our Lives rallies came from 390 out of the 435 Congressional districts in this country. Volunteers were at many venues registering voters. The kids themselves have said theyâre looking forward to voting in November, and their parents are also highly motivated. Gun violence is going to be a rallying cry in response to D.C.âs indifference. The next item on votersâ agenda will be healthcare. After that we only have PPâs 53% disapproval rating, a predicted high turnout of Dems, lots of other reliable polls and and weâll always have Râs losing sets
The outcome may hinge on the economy. Voters, even relatively smart ones, donât often care about a war overseas unless itâs going badly for us with lots of US casualties. A trade war with severe consequences for the economy in red states plus rising inflation could push a wave to a tsunami. But I donât think things will go to pot in just 6 months. GOTV, obviously, but I have lowered expectations. Thereâs a long tunnel in front of that light. The problems in our system are structural and recalcitrant. Wish I could be more upbeat, but there it is.
The House will be far easier to take back than the Senate. We need to retain and/or take back 24 seats but weâll do better in the Senate in 2020.
Not saying anything we donât all know, but his incompetence becomes even more painful in contrast to his predecessor who took the job about as seriously as anyone weâve seen in a long time.
Howâs that top 2 primary bit looking in CA. I understand thereâs concern that too many Dems vying for district representatives will dilute the vote in R held districts. Will folks be willing to drop out for the greater good?
I suspect many Republicans from the suburbs - i.e., not the frothing base - may not be overly enthused about voting this year. And many in the frothing base probably never vote in the midterms and just came out in 2016 for their special man. And hatred of the she-devil of course.
Itâs very concerning, and my fear is that no one is going to fall on their sword for the greater good unless thereâs very heavy persuasion coming at them from state party officials. .
Do I ever feel you on that one?! I just try to remind myself that there were so many variables that were simply beyond any semblance of reasonable calculation. Who knew the FBI would interfere with not-news about emails they already had? Who knew the extent of the conspiracy between PPâs campaign, the GOP, and Russia? Who knew how deeply fake news had wormed itself into almost every aspect of our online lives? We forget, or at least I do, that this race was won by the population of a small city.
Yeah. I especially canât see Bernie types willing to drop out even if they arenât polling well (coz principles, yada, yada).
Perhaps Michael Cohen will be available to provide incentive.
I think the marches showed that Democrats are very enthusiastic and the kidsâ activism is going to make a difference. Some of them took 10-hour bus rides to get to Washington and there are generational changes on the horizon Râs donât how to deal with since their base is old and white.