No we aren’t but keep it to yourself. 
I want the word on the street to say we’re no threat whatsoever.
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when they get clocked, they will be moaning about the turnout. ALL those voters that were going to vote and just didn’t get around to it. right.
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I just finished reading your earlier post and was saying to myself, “Yeah, you’ve got a good point.” It really is better for Dems to go into election season scared we’re gonna lose. Folks will be less likely to stay home, vote third party to teach someone a lesson, or worst of all, do that thing where they vote for some “moderate” Republican so that they can say, “I’m an independent. I vote for the best candidate. Both sides!”
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While I’d forgotten about that Duggar guy who molested his sister, Taylor Swift did not.
I wondered about Trump’s odd relationship with his daughter Ivanka, but it seems there’s a pattern of inappropriate interfamilial relations that the GOP largely approve of.
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I swear to the goddesses that if we found out for certain that Trump had committed or was still committing incest with Ivanka, his supporters would just say that proves he’s actually Ramses IV reincarnated. And the person who would push that story the hardest would be the Chief High Priest Jim Jeffress.
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In both cases, they have to hold your attention long enough to get through the next commercial. Nobody under 30 does that anymore, so cable news is the province of the elderly. Ads feature things like adult diapers, cellphones for old people, reverse mortgages and boner pills. And of course, the world is on fire and this is the most important election of our lifetime.
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duplicate
Here is something for everyone to consider. Nate Silver touched on this gingerly, but it bears further discussion.
Donations to individual candidates are part of the 538 prediction/forecast model. This year, however, those numbers are lopsided in favor of Democrats while the GOP is relying on super pacs. We know that candidate money > super pac money because it buys more advertising per dollar and because candidates can shape the message. Superpacs can’t coordinate with candidates.
This was a big issue for Romney in 2012. Obama took full advantage of his large contribution base to shape messages and target ads more effectively.
Nate’s worry is that his model might end up overstating Dem’s chances because the GOP has simply not cared about individual donations. The two electorates might value campaign donations differently and it might, therefore, no longer be a quality metric to use to predict voting behavior.
Here’s an alternative take: What if GOP voters are sitting fat and happy because of 2016 when they didn’t really contribute that much but won anyway? What if that sense of confidence is misplaced because the difference between 2016 and 2018 is that the big dark money super pac, otherwise known as GRU, is not participating this time? What if the Trump free media factor is also much less of a factor? Wouldn’t that make this closer to a 2012 or somewhat standard or dare I say, ‘normal’ political environment? Could that not mean that the Dems, with their cash advantage per candidate and their very effective distribution of funds will make big gains in the final 3 weeks as the GOP triages? Stay tuned.
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I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again:
#WOMEN ARE FUCKING PISSED OFF.
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By Richard Linklater, no less.
Anyway, of course Dems were going to gain. They stuck by their constituents against a historically hated SCOTUS nominee during the time of MeToo. And all but one stood their ground against him. This idea that standing up to Kavanaugh was ever going to hurt them is the same, histrionic crap the media loves because it makes things more dramatic. Well, I’ve had enough drama, now I want some electoral ass-whoopings.
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I switched to R in early 2016 so that I could vote in the R primary here in California. I could only stand it a week before I switched back.
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I am so done with polls.
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He is an accomplice after the fact in her assault.
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We need to strike a balance between a healthy anxiety and abject despair though. If people are scared that we will lose if they don’t get out and vote, they will be more likely to go to the polls. However, if they’ve internalized the message that it’s hopeless and the fix is in, it can be discouraging and drive voter apathy.
I don’t see that happening, but it’s something to keep in mind as we craft our message.
Particularly since every time he brings her up, it prolongs the risks from the crazies to her family now.
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And that is exactly why it is a scary time for men and boys now – women have it out for them and will make up whatever shit they can to take them down.
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Yes.
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i echo what @tena said.
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The individual polls, even those quality polls, are at best a snapshot for the period they were conducted. So, I don’t run around with my hair on fire every time one or even several discouraging poll are posted. The sourcing of these polls are important and yes, the online polls are worthless IMHO.
What I do find interesting and encouraging is the surge in voter registration across the country. A lot of the uptick is with young voters, who we’ve been told repeatedly won’t come out to the polls but for some mysterious (ahem) reason came out far enough to register. Maybe it’s because they don’t like being used for target practice.
There’s some kind of disconnect going on in these polls/articles, a disconnect that I suspect has more horserace fever elements to it, a revving up by the media. And then there’s the women’s vote. The Republicans are grossly underestimating how many women were pissed off by the Kavanaugh hearings, IMHO. Calling women protestors clowns, a Mob and/or savages doesn’t warm the female heart.
If it’s all about GOTV (which it always is) I don’t see or hear a diminishment in either. What’s on the increase is genuine anger, this time directed against the Trumpster/Kavanaugh enablers.
Don’t claim to have a crystal ball just my personal instinct: We’re going to win this thing!
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Thanks for this homework. Unless shithead starts a war, I think Nate Silver’s forecasts are all ye need to know:. Truth is beauty Beauty is truth.
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