Not possible the MSM narrative must be that the world is collapsing for the Dems because they stood up to GOP over Kavanaugh. Obviously this is a fake poll 
A ray of sunshine in an otherwise cloudy time!
NO, this does not “contradict” other surveys!!!
Context matters. This survey is (1) high quality (it is not a RAS Push-poll with a pro-Rethug “likely voters” screen), and (2) it was taken in the Oct 4-7 window.
The public is moving around in their views, there is a lot going on, and it takes a while for events to sink in. Everyone was emotional around the KAV confirmation, and the “news” and Trump’s nasty victory lap, along with the ongoing denigration of women is getting a lot of coverage. It takes a while for these things to filter through.
P.s. I think the “narrative” has more to do with a set of shitty/on-line polls, and the lack of quality data. The recent non-Rassmussan style polls have been:
- 10/1-4 Emerson (+8R) but its IVR + online panel. I think IVR polls are suspect, and tend to skew R.
- 10/1 Marist (+6D) quality poll, but taken in the middle of events on a single day. This is not methodologically sound.
- Iposos has shown +12D (9/26-10/2) and +12D (9/25-10/1) with large on-line surveys, but again on-line.
The last full “quality” poll was Quinnipiac on 9/27-30 which showed the race D +7, and before that Marist on 9/22-24 (D +7) and Pew 9/18-24 (D+10). So the most recent quality data is now two weeks or so old.
The last CNN poll was 9/6-9 and it showed the race at +10D (42% R/52%D) the current results of +13% D (41%R/54% D) may be a little high, but they show what I would expect to see, which is that “undecided” voters (who tend to be lower information voters and skew female) are breaking for the Democrats, about what you would expect with a minority administration playing to its base.
P.s.s. This piece by Stu Rothenberg sees things the same way I suggest above, and note that this came out before today’s CNN/SSRS poll. https://www.rollcall.com/news/opinion/beware-the-pre-election-final-month-musings
Totally fake poll. Everyone knows that the meanie liberals have fired up the Republican base, making them energized and totally voting now despite planning to not before.
And don’t worry, I’m sure the media will be breathlessly highlighting THIS poll, just like they did the other one.
My reaction to this news is ethical and tactical. Ethically, I hope–I pray–that the likelihood of criminal sexual assault does not raise a person’s standing in the eyes of most Americans. Yes, I know that there are a lot of men (and their female enablers) who are afraid of contemporary cultural and political changes. They are certainly not a majority of the population. I hope they are not a majority of next month’s electorate.
Tactically, I think that whatever satisfaction the pro-Kavanaugh, pro-victim-blaming crowd felt with Kavanaugh’s confirmation, that satisfaction will dissipate somewhat over the next month, while the righteous anger over Dr. Ford’s treatment–including presidential insults–will only grow.
Where are we in the suburbs? That is where the battle is, IMO.
other recent polling and push back on the narrative that the Kavanaugh hearings were a political win for the GOP.
Oh, you mean the polls that were prepared before the hearings! Yep, that’s what happens when reality meets propaganda.
Thank God.
Well THAT was one hell of a red wave, eh?
“House Democrats’ lead in the generic congressional ballot has slightly increased…a 13-point edge. That’s up from 10 points…”
Just for the mathematically challenged, that’s a 30% increase.
Hardly “slight”.
But, hey, horserace narrative and all.
“Those numbers…suggest the building narrative that the Kavanaugh confirmation was a disaster for Democrats isn’t totally correct.”
How about, “Is total bullsh—”?
suburban tsunami.
[insert beavis/butthead type heh-heh sound here]
To coin a phrase, “There’s only one poll that counts.”
If you look at Fox News or Newsmax, you get this idea they’ve really fired up the base over prep-school raping. It’s a fiction.
Equally surprising is that this made it to top headline over Trump tweets here at TPM.
Pleasant surprise (while it lasts)
Dems will be “Rocking the Suburbs”
Red Wave= BLOODBATH… Nunes and Rohrbacher, Handel and King can ride it all the way to Moscow.
But the argument from some Republican strategists that the Kavanaugh fight has drained the blue wave seems far-fetched, according to this survey and others.
Meh…
Play "She’s a Rainbow " Alexa…
hopefully more than just the burbs.
For the statistically challenged, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. So that 3 percentage point increase is well within the margin of sampling error.