I switched my registration last year to republican, as I often do. It gives me info i would not usually see from my local R critters, but I get called on a LOT more polls.
I got a call the night after the hearing and BOY did I give them an earful! I was as ‘firm’ in my one word responses as I could be!
Maybe it was me, but the pollster seemed a bit ‘bemused’ at the responses I was giving, as if he had heard it dozens of times that night.
In the end, it was a poll being done for a local sheriffs race…
Going by yard signs in my area (NY 19), Faso is going down hard and most local republicans won’t be able to differentiate themselves from the national races, which is unheard of in a midterm year.
That’s what you get for converting your farmland into new homes for all those well to do millennials and xers-they vote.
Btw, if you really piss them off, they know more than you how to organize and oust you too. We know, we taught them how…
I totally agree with this. The Republicans responded to Ford with a “win at any cost” strategy, aided by Avenatti playing to the camera which allowed them and FOX news to imply this was all made up. However, once the tribal emotion wears off, it all looks much more ugly, with Trump treating KAV like his little punk, and the republicans continuing to attack Ford and women in general. Their short term sugar high of partisanship will wear off, with some coming to view things with some regret, but those mad about what they did will stay mad.
I could list a number of examples of how a “we won” narrative is turned arround by the otherside staying mad, while the winner thinks the battle is over. ObamaCare in 2010 is the prefect example. Although popular when it passed, it quickly turned into an issue for the loosers. It only became popular in retrospect. I think we will see something similar with KAV, except his votes are not going to make him preceived as less of a hack.
Yeah, this would have happened regardless. Doesn’t make sense to pin this on Avenatti. If the GOP didn’t have that specific foil, they would have invented another one.
Serious question here
I don’t answer calls whose number I don’t recognize especially now that all the solicitors use local numbers and I really wonder how many people do?
You are correct as to the 25-30% of the Country who are Trump’s base. They will believe any lie. But there are a lot of people who believe in fairness and are looking at the evidence. My SO who who 110% believed Ford and is totally POed about what happened, was suspicious of Avenatti’s allegations, and was very upset that some “man” was trying to stage manage it. She said “he had better have the goods, or this is going to blow up in the D’s face” and sure enough Avenatti did not have the goods.
We have to win over the 10% in the middle, and Avenatti did not help with them,he hurt.
Justice Drinking Age’s confirmation hearing itself, to say nothing of his underlying philosophy if you could call it that, amounted to grasping whatever straw is necessary to secure the win. I don’t see why the post confirmation spin should be any different.
It is getting harder and harder to get accurate results due to the “non-response” bias. IRV has a bigger bias as people just hang up.
This said, by careful weighting, and calling enough with live opperators, and making a lot of calls, you will get enough responses to make it work. The quality polling in 2016 was - once you count the shift to Trump and “change” after Comey threw the election at the end - actually quite good.
The harder issue is how do you model the electorate? RAS’s numbers are badly off (IMHO) because he assumes the electorate is basically the 2014 mid-term electorate, which is is not since (1) the republicans are in power & (2) trump is unpopular, plus he uses sketchy things like AVR and on-line polling.
At the end, you have to look at polls by similar outfits and see movement, and ask if it makes sense?
To give an e.g. the Sept 6-9 CNN poll had Trump at 36% approval, 58% Disapproval. It shows the “generic ballot” as being 42% R/52% D. That said that (1) a lot of folks who did not approve of Trump are voting R, and (2) that more people disapprove of Trump than are willing to vote for the D’s.
Flash forward this current Oct 4-7 shows Trump up from before: 41% Approval, 52% disapproval, but it shows the generic ballot as being 41% R/54% D.
This says to me that CNN did not pull a more anti-R/anti-Trump set of respondents by error, rather that Trump’s voters came home to him (likely because of KAV), but also that more voters (including some folks who slightly support Trump) want a check on him either totally or some limits on him.
The “I want divided government” voter is well known, and is about 10% of the population. It makes perfect sense to me that Trump’s voters would both come home to him & that Democratic numbers would go up since more people want a check on Trump.
No, no, no - not total bullshit. A very large percentage is horseshit, and there’s definitely some pigshit mixed in, as well. Trust me, I used to live in the country and I can recognize shit when I see it…
You are getting called on more polls because most polling is done by campaigns off of “voter files” and they tend to oversample their own voters to look for problems. As a new registrant you are of particular interest to them.
Howdy neighbor! I’m in Ulster Cty. My short commute to work (10 minutes, 7 miles) is littered with Delgado and Metzger signs. There are the occasional Faso sign, though a fair number of those are at public intersections.
I’ve been phone banking and canvassing for Delgado, and the numbers and determination are through the roof. Apparently, Delgado’s campaign has the 2nd most numbers of contact touches for any Cong. campaign, only behind an Los Ang- area race!
I’ll be hosting more phone-banking, canvassing and other GOTV efforts.
Retire Faso!
I just don’t understand how standing up to Trump is bad for Democrats. This is especially true in the face of the credible allegations against Kavanaugh. The Republicans are engaged in some wishful thinking and the MSM herd seems to be buying into the same wishful thinking. I am really encouraged by the high number of young people who are signing up to vote. Most polling models don’t take those folks into account. November 6 could be a real sea change. A lot of MSM types who work in DC could be surprised, especially if they buy into the Republican meme.
The polls will trend positive for Dems in the coming month. For Republicans there will be buyers’ remorse as the reality of what was done to Dr. Blasey Ford and Ms. Ramirez (and Ms. Swetnick) sinks in. On the left, there’s just no end to the pain - and the motivation to chage.
I expect Dotard to continue lobbing insults at Dr. Ford. He’s about to go into full campaign mode and he won’t be able to help himself but to go after her at his rallies. I think the continued insults will only begin to turn off women who didn’t know who to believe. It’s settled, it’s over, he got his guy on the court and yet he’s still attacking.
Of the eight reputable national pollsters to survey the generic congressional poll since the Sept. 27 hearings, three including CNN have found an increase for Democrats’ lead in the generic congressional ballot since the last time those pollsters were in the field, three have found Democrats’ lead shrinking, and two have found essentially no change.
So, of the eight reputable national pollsters, 5 found no change or an increase while 3 found Democrats’ lead shrinking. But the media is focused solely on the 3 polls with bad news for the Dems instead of the 5 that look good for us.
