The exit polling will live on to remind us of who did what
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I know I should give up thinking about the facts of the Kavanaugh story but I find myself unable to let it go. Here is a point which I haven’t yet seen made forcefully enough (maybe it was made somewhere). As we know, the Republican theory of the Blasey Ford accusation, explicitly endorsed by Susan Collins, is that she was indeed assaulted by someone just not by Kavanaugh. (“The little lady is just a bit mixed up about who attacked her, that’s all.”) It’s very interesting then that her accusation includes: 1) the fact that her attackers were wildly drunk; and 2) that Kavanaugh attacked her with another male. These are very specific, non-generic claims. Nothing about Kavanaugh’s proclivities in these directions were publicly known before Ford made these accusations.
So what do you know? It turns out, with a little investigation, that Kavanaugh undoubtedly DOES (or did) have a drinking problem and a tendency to get aggressive when drunk, as does his co-assaulter. These are facts confirmed by multiple people. And not only that, Kav and Judge also had an interest in menage-a-trois, as both explicitly boast in their yearbooks. (Kav’s lies about the meaning of “Devil’s Triangle” notwithstanding.) On top of that, Judge privately confessed that he engaged in that behavior while drunk and was ashamed of doing so.
So Kavanaugh was shown to be a belligerent drunk with a proclivity toward having sex with a woman with another man present. The other person accused has exactly the same profile. Again, none of this could possibly have been known to Blasey Ford beforehand.
So the Republican theory is that Ford is wrong about the identity of the people who attacked her (wrong about both!), but she just happened to identify two people as her assaulters who demonstrably exhibited a tendency toward exactly the behavior she accused them of. Great coincidence, right? And yet the media passes along the Republican “theory” of the case as a viable alternative, and suggests that we simply have no way of knowing which side is correct.
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The narrative that this was hurting Dems never made any sense in the first place. Support for this nomination was the lowest for any Scotus nominee in years. Then a poll comes out, I believe it was yesterday, showing that people believed Dr Ford over Kav by double digits. How does that translate to good news for Repubs? The problem that repubs are having is because they are losing women by anywhere between 15 and 25 points depending on the poll. I fail to see how essentially saying that Dr. Ford was not telling the truth about this was a political winner for Repubs. It looked to be the opposite to me because this would seem to be ticking off women even more than they already are. Even if Repubs are juiced for the election by this so what. They have the lowest enrollment compared to Dems and Indys and Repubs always vote during midterms. It is in their DNA. But as long as Dems and Indys also get out and vote many Repub incumbents are toast. I have noted this before but it is worth repeating. Women are the largest single voting bloc among registered voters in the country. If women come out and vote as they usually do and vote Dem by the margins polls are predicting or that they actually voted last year in VA then repubs can kiss the house goodbye and that blue wave will be enormous.
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I listened to certain people at MSNBC who told me Kav would lose by a 4-vote margin. Talkers gotta talk.
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Yeah, this would have happened regardless. Doesn’t make sense to pin this on Avenatti. If the GOP didn’t have that specific foil, they would have invented another one.
They could have used the foil in their hats.
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This poll aligns with today’s VA-10 and NJ-11 polls showing growing and consolidating gains among Dem candidates who have been running strong for a while in GOP held districts. There were also other polls (Emerson/Reuters) that had some slight uptick for Dems. So, I don’t call this an outlier.
CNN does sometimes have news cycle sensitive polls. However, this poll goes against the MSM spin. That’s what makes it interesting imho.
In addition, while the margin among women is very high, I think an equally important factor is that the GOP margin among men is 5 points, which is low for them. POC men are backing up women. In 2014, men were +16 and +14 (2010) for the GOP per the CNN and NYT exit polls, respectively.
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This interview of millennial voters in Orange County (CA) is sad. [starts at 1m 50s]
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I took a survey this morning with myself:
- angry
- registered
- Democrat
CSPAN is going to get AWESOME next year.
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the margin of error (of 4% +/-) at 10% means 6-14%. at 13%, the margin of error means 9-17%.
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Yes, which means 13% is statistically indistinguishable from the previous result of 10%.
it means the bar is likely raised. 6%, 7 %, and 8% are out.
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Millennials are gravy voters. They’re not the main course. They’ll add to our margins but will not define them. When they wake up, we’ll have a radically different (and better) country.
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Personally I’d be very happy to see that become The Meme for awhile. I’m looking to lull his voters into a false sense of security, reduce any of their urgency to zero where possible and hope they stay home.
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No, it means that 10% and 13% are within the margin of sampling error of the surveys, and therefore are statistically indistinguishable results.
But we can hope, right?
+++ on Blues for Allah
I don’t think that’s our real problem. It’s that they hate women so much they simply refuse to believe that there is a “likelihood of criminal sexual assault.” She lied, end of story.
That said, I also think that just as with Dems, the idea that we’re going into an election with all this supposed momentum tends to dampen the need to get off asses and get to the polls. Dems have finally learned better (I hope) after 2016. Reps have never really experienced that on a large scale, so maybe they’ll make the same mistake we always have in the past.
I know that on the rightwing forums I scroll through, the bubble is rock solid. They truly believe a red wave is coming. And while they’re the ones who are politically active, based on their activity on these forums, they’ll definitely vote, but will the people they brag to about the red wave make the same effort?
Between those guys and the national media promoting this meme, we may have a chance that those lazy Reps will stay home.
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that is wrong thinking but i do hope the new poll is accurate. so many polls are flawed beyond believable. and thanks for the blues for allah recognition. cool album.
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But the media is focused solely on the 3 polls with bad news for the Dems instead of the 5 that look good for us.
I hope they keep it up! I want Reps to think they’ve got it locked and Dems to be worried. This is the opposite of what usually happens (see: Presidential election, 2016) and for once if the media manages to screw up in a way to help the Dems, I’m a happy camper.
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Somewhat O/T… but funny…
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Liked x infinity since I just said the same thing hahahahahahaha
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So the Dems aren’t in disarray? So confused.
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