For years, a question has loomed over Democrats’ sprawling democratic overhaul bill: whether they could find 50 votes in the Senate to gut the filibuster and circumvent certain GOP opposition. The answer to that question remains unknown. And yet, Democrats had a reason to feel energized Thursday, as they headed into a vote next week that will be the first time the Senate is put on record on the bill since it was introduced in 2019.
So, let’s see. King Joe doesn’t help get the noncompromise version passed. Now, predictably, Yertle nixes the compromise version, and we wonder if King Joe will finally let go of the filibuster. When he could have let it go for the fuller version in the first place. I guess that’s the 2021 version of Joementum!
He doesn’t want the “fuller version.” He’s been quite explicit on that point. It’s genuinely surprising how much of it is retained in his “compromise” proposal.
If he gets to 50 votes on a bill that looks like what he proposed yesterday, he’s helping. If he subsequently gets to 50 votes on a point of order to amend the filibuster rules, he’ll be helping even more.
I am wondering what the game plan is. I’m not a parliamentarian. My guess is that Schumer could:
(1) Agree with Manchin that his changes will be incorporated
(2) Get Manchin to support the motion to proceed
(3) Have a full debate, with amendments, during which Manchin basically gets what he wants
(4) Greet GOP amendments with some version of “If we agree to that, will you vote for the bill?”
(5) Agree to some GOP amendments (if there are any that aren’t poison pills) to call their bluff
(6) Attempt to move the bill to a vote
(7) Keep the camera on Manchin’s face as the GOP blocks the bill
(8) Start serious talks about filibuster reform
But that’s just a rough scenario. Can anyone here with a better grasp of Senate procedure enlighten us on how best to get from here to there?
I’m no parliamentarian either, but my best recollection is that after the cloture vote fails, the majority leader will then change his vote to go against cloture, which keeps “debate” on the bill open and allows the bill to be resubmitted later. If Dems then reach agreement on changing the filibuster, Schumer then brings the bill back to the floor, moves to invoke cloture, gets shot down a second time, then someone brings a point of order to say that the rule should be something else (41 votes and hold the floor seems likely). The parliamentarian overrules the point of order, and the full chamber votes on whether to overrule the parliamentarian. Boom, talking filibuster and the need to keep 41 GOP senators nearby to vote on short notice.