This article is part of TPM Cafe, TPM’s home for opinion and news analysis. It was originally published at The Conversation.
This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://talkingpointsmemo.com/?p=1451386
This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://talkingpointsmemo.com/?p=1451386
I found this article to be quite interesting; helps explain the importance to Republicans for limiting ballot access.
One phrase really caught my attention though. “Black populations, 14% and 12%”. I remember back in the 1970s I bought my first house in a small development in the Finger Lakes area of New York. There were about 30 houses, and there were 3 black families. All was well. Also at this time period I remember reading an article about integration in which the author [based on what I do not remember] stated that 14% black was a tipping point for unrest. I observed this as another black family moved in raising the percentage to 13%. People talked, but tolerantly. A fourth family shifted the tone of the talk,
Perhaps there is more significance to the reported number than would be expected, particularly noting Ohio’s geographic position relative to Michigan during the Civil War.
BTW - my first FIRST
20 Likes
My sense from years ago is that Ohio is more “two states” than Michigan is. Southern Ohio is more aligned with the South, while even parts of northern Michigan, far right wing militia types, is industrial.
7 Likes
OT. Just read this…. Now I’m pissed even more at Raygun.
As the U.S. reflects on the legacy of former President Jimmy Carter, new details from a prominent Texas politician could upend the narrative surrounding one of the defining moments of his presidency: the Iran hostage crisis. According to reporting from The New York Times , former Texas Lt. Gov. Ben Barnes claims that a high-ranking member of Ronald Reagan’s 1980 presidential campaign took him on a secret diplomatic tour of the Middle East in a bid to damage Carter’s re-election campaign by convincing Iran not to release its 52 American hostages until after the election. “History needs to know that this happened. I think it’s so significant and I guess knowing that the end is near for President Carter put it on my mind more and more and more,” said Barnes, 85. After holding the hostages for 444 days in a standoff that derailed Carter’s presidency, Iran finally released them minutes after Reagan was inaugurated on January 20, 1981. Congressional investigations into collusion between the Reagan campaign and Iran did not find evidence of wrongdoing at the time, but Barnes’ account has the potential to shed light on the much-debated episode, which has become known as the “October surprise.”
17 Likes
I always assumed that was common knowledge.
12 Likes
I kinda disagree with this article. IMO, demographics are key to understanidng why OH is going backwards while MI is not. The idea of “demographics” being soley White v. Black is sort of misleading.
Ohio voters were less likely to reside in a union household – 21% to 27% – and were much more likely to identify as Republicans, 41% to 32%.
I would say this is absolutely central to understanding OH’s descent into MAGA. When some White Union members got this idea that White Union workers weren’t really benefiting from the Union’s activities, that the Union was corrupt (maybe) and that minorities were benefiting more, that’s when they went Right-To-Work. Now, there’s little opportunity for anyone non college degree workers (e.g., manufacturing) and lack of diversity in the workforce doesn’t attract a lot of companies.
In addition, OH has been suffering from brain drain for at least a decade. Factor all these together, and the State hares more in common with the Deep South than States above the Mason-Dixon.
6 Likes
This is a very solid article, but one major difference is key: Ohio’s governors and state legislature have been in GOP hands for decades. While extreme gerrymandering didn’t occur until 2010, and further accelerated in 2020, Ohio’s legislature and congressional representation are permanently GOP, since the party has flouted the law and state supreme court findings repeatedly.
The massive corruption in Ohio’s political leadership, which recently led to the state House speaker going to jail, seems irrelevant, since the GOP is intent upon keeping a stranglehold over the government, regardless of the will of voters. What does this mean? It discourages voters from exercising the franchise, and perpetuates the GOP rule.
15 Likes
Remember it is a pretty generally accepted point that just 12 years earlier - in 1968 - Nixon - through various channels - meddled in foreign relations matters without authority to do so - & - scuttled any and all possible movements toward Vietnam peace talks/ resolution of military action … or really anything that might have given Humphrey momentum of any sort.
15 Likes
Until Democrats fire the elderly beltway consultants and get the best Madison Ave madmen money can buy we will continue to struggle in states like Ohio. When have you heard anything about anything from the DNC?
9 Likes
Two differences I did not see mentioned:
-
Michigan passed a Constitutional amendment in 2018 to target gerrymandering with a bipartisan redistricting commission. This was in place before the 2020 census
-
Detroit
Detroit has half a million registered voters, most of whom do not vote regularly. When Detroit does turn out to vote, however, that can swing statewide elections in Michigan. At 46%, Detroit turnout was higher than its usual 30% in 2018, and in 2020 Detroit turnout was over 70% – more than double its usual.
19 Likes
Good article illustrating complexity but I remain convinced the most significant element was and is a toxic combination of Republican gerrymandering and ‘white anxiety.’
8 Likes
… we explored recent elections in both states and found a divergence after 2016, with Michigan voting more blue and Ohio voting more red.
Isn’t the answer obvious?
10 Likes
I’ll go forth and celebrate your first first with a fifth. Give me a second.
5 Likes
THIS! x 
One of the largest issues facing our democracy this year may not have much to do with the White House. Around the country, in courts, legislatures, the media, and polling places, Americans are grappling with gerrymandering. Citizen-led campaigns to fight against this anti-democratic practice are popping up across America, including in one of the most gerrymandered states in the country: Ohio.
Michigan has its share of gerrymandering as well. And I understand both states highest courts have over-ruled many of the recent laws. But the states keep defying them.
Thank you for pointing out this issue. Deep bow!
13 Likes
I take your point and it’s probably a valid observation, but these statistics are more misleading than helpful for Michigan at least. Michigan’s black population was heavily concentrated in Detroit during the Great Migration. It was then redlined into Detroit by the state of Michigan and the federal government. To this day, Detroit buses are not allowed to travel outside the city limits. You have to disembark, walk to a non-Detroit bus stop, and wait.
At one time, there was literally a wall built on 8-mile to separate black Detroit from the white suburbs next to it.
The Great Migration to Michigan was overwhelmingly focused on Detroit, with its burgeoning auto industry. Ohio, with its great steel mills and numerous other mature industries attracted migrants throughout the state. This historical difference manifests to this day as a different level of “mixing” in complexions, with Michigan’s population of people having a dark complexion concentrated in Detroit and Ohio’s population distributed among various locations of formerly heavy industry
10 Likes
It’s because of Ohio State.
2 Likes
You know, for a whole lotta people, this might be the only classical conditioning learning process they ever use in making decisions. 
3 Likes
I agree with @hatmama on the gerrymandering front. Depressing urban turnout is a key for me. The state level Dem candidates have been bad for awhile and unsupported by the Dem party which makes it a self fulfilling prophecy.
Add the horrible SOSs we have had from Blackwell to LaRose and turnout goes down the toilet.
The GOP money machine is already attacking Dem congresspeople for 2024. The same with Sherrod Brown. They are going to fuck around and lose the seat for Brown to someone like Dolan.
7 Likes
Just noticed one pretty big error in this analysis:
There is no possible way to know the political preference of Michigan’s registered voters that haven’t voted. There is no party preference or membership in Michigan’s voter roles. This information is never captured anywhere – at least not by the State
1 Like