In my view, the ONLY reason abortion is a partisan issue is because Republicans represent a minority on economic issues and so use social issues to win elections by getting people to vote other than their best economic interests. Therefore, even though TODAY, as opposed to before Dobbs, there are more one issue pro-abortion voters, Republicans cannot afford to lose the one issue anti-abortion voters and still have any chance of winning elections.
That is what Dobbs did was change the advantage given a Party by one issue abortion voters from Republicans to Democrats. That is before Dobbs, most single issue abortion voters wanted abortion illegal and since Dobbs most single issue abortion voters want abortion legal. However, to iterate, it did not change the fact that Republicans cannot afford to lose the one issue anti-abortion voter and still have any hope of winning elections.
With the above in mind, this article misses the biggest problem with Trump and the current Republican discussion of abortion in regard to single issue abortion voters who want abortion to be illegal.
While for a time it seemed that Republicans were arguing that it should be left to the states, it is now clear that pig will not fly with anti-abortion voters because it means that a woman in a state that outlawed abortion would merely need to visit a cousin in Illinois.
Realizing the “up to the states” will for obvious reasons not satisfy the voters who for over 40 years supported Republicans because they truly believe abortion is murder, Republicans are now looking at supporting a national ban based on weeks after pregnancy.
The problem with the number of weeks approach is that 93%+ of all abortions are performed in the first 15 weeks. Furthermore, the vast majority of abortions performed after 15 weeks are to save the life and health of the mother. Therefore to support a ban after 15 weeks with exceptions for the life and health of the mother is to outlaw no less than 1% of abortions.
That is for Republicans to say to those voters who for forty years have given Republicans power in spite of the fact Republican economic policies hurt them because those voters believe abortion is murder and want it to be illegal, is to admit to those voters that they have been played.
Now what DeSantis did in Florida is for Republicans political disaster. Banning abortions after 6 weeks, often before a woman knows for certain she is pregnant, will not change the current situation whereby more one issue abortion voters support Democrats. But making a national abortion ban after 15 weeks with exceptions basically stops no abortions.
Which again brings up the problem Republicans have with this issue, any serious abortion ban results in them losing elections and any not serious abortion ban results in Republicans losing voters serious about banning abortion again causing them to lose elections.
Another problem Republicans have with abortion is the only candidate to actually deliver to the anti-abortion voters after 40 years is Donald Trump. Therefore he not only has their votes in his pocket, he is the only candidate with any room leeway to maneuver.
So well for reasons not related to abortion Donald Trump is unelectable, for reasons related to abortion he may be the only GOP candidate that is electable.
