If we look at the popular vote numbers, Trump is probably going to get the same number of votes as he did in 2020. He certainly is not going to break Biden’s numbers from 2020. Trump’s current numbers by state are pretty much where they were in 2020 too.
I think that the difference (besides a dose of racism and misogyny) is that in 2020 there was a greater sense of urgency, of personal urgency. Between the pandemic and unemployment, etc, we were not in a good place. People, who don’t normally vote, felt the urgency. They felt the need to get Trump out. This year, thanks to the current administration (whether they want to credit the current administration or not) people are personally doing much better, so those people who don’t normally vote did not feel the same urgency as they did in 2020. Most likely, many of those people figured Harris had it in the bag, so they just didn’t drag their asses to the polls.
