Damn, missed it by that much!
@castor_troy is gonna be sooo pissed that he left me to break into your team while he was on holiday and I blew it… 
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it’s what will actually happen should a clean debt ceiling bill not pass. it’s a long way to Tipperary.
We ain’t even close.
Yet…
If anyone wants to watch he video and report on it, feel free.
Talked to a handful of voters in a conservative coffee shop in Pinellas County, Florida today.
— Aaron Parseghian WTSP (@AaronParseghian) May 25, 2023
They love DeSantis, they love Trump and right now—they’re not taking sides. @10TampaBay pic.twitter.com/36mFSXkk1O
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Surprisingly not OT:
Today’s Evening Briefing appears to show that the 2024 election will be predictable in at least one respect: Donald Trump transparently proposing a quid pro quo in his public statements. And DeSantis is doing it too, and very credibly.
We gotta treat this the same way we treated it when then-President Trump was very crudely signalling to Paul Manafort to not flip for Mueller: it’s a bribe and obstruction and an impeachable offense all by itself.
In reality, i.e. as perceived by the GOP voters they are speaking to, this was a pretty powerful exchange on the primary campaign trail: DeSantis has been proving that he’s good at actually “hurting the right people,” and tonight he sweetened the deal for MAGAts and other Trump-leaning voters, because a “President DeSantis” is the future you’d want if you reluctantly accept that the Dems really do have Trump on something good this time around, and one of your political priorities is making sure that Good Old 45 can escape safely to whatever retirement awaits him.
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Ahem…
THE RAREY BIRD
Once upon a time, there was a great explorer who collected exotic animals for the London Zoo.
One day, news of a new species of bird was brought to his attention. Only one had ever been seen. It was called the ‘Rarey Bird’ because, well, it was so rare.
Naturally, the great explorer had to have it for the London Zoo. He travelled far and wide until he was successful in his quest. He brought the Rarey Bird back to the London Zoo and kept it in a large cage where all could see it and marvel.
Before long, the Rarey Bird ate so much and grew so large that the cage could no longer contain it. It was moved to a larger cage, but soon outgrew that one as well. It became apparent that the Rarey Bird was not going to stop growing, and so the great explorer was asked to shoot it dead before it could eat the Zoo out of business.
Well, it was already too late. No weapon in the great explorer’s possession could kill the Rarey Bird. The military was called in, and they too could not kill the Rarey Bird. There was only one chance left: the Rarey Bird would be brought to the highest cliff in the land, and thrown over the edge, to meet its end on the rocks below.
Now, the Rarey Bird had remained silent all this time, but when it was finally brought to the edge of this cliff, it turned to the great explorer and said:
“I say, what are you planning to do with me?”
The explorer replied, “We are going to tip you over the edge.”
The Rarey Bird looked at the rocks far, far below, and said to the great explorer:
"Gee, that’s a long way to tip a Rarey."
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She ait running; Scher said it better than me: if the red line is 1/6 (pardons, etc.), she’s going to enjoy retirement.
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This is your periodic reminder that you do not, under any circumstances, “gotta hand it to Hitler”
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May the Sackler’s dream home be plagued by uneven subsidence and rising damp. May they be unable to entertain on their back deck because of the mosquitoes and black flies bred in the not-a-wetlands around their house.
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an actual prediction
I’m going to interpret the title as an invitation, and I’m going to make a prediction about the messages that will be “smuggled” through right-wing media as part of the GOP primary:
- Trump will say that DeSantis’ attacks on out-groups haven’t hurt them deeply enough
When Trump the Grizzly Bear swipes a foe with his paw, the cuts are broad and deep, whereas DeSantis the Bear Cub’s claws are weaker and do superficial damage only.
Trump will compare one of his most savage administrative brutalities (my guess: family separation policy*) with something DeSantis inflicted on Florida, and he’ll argue that a “President DeSantis” will leave you, the voter who wants to see out-groups harmed, “wanting more.” We may get an unnecessarily offensive version of a familiar food trope.
My guess as a layman is that if this does come to pass, a straightforward response from DeSantis would be that governors don’t have the same abilities that presidents do, and he’ll make a plea to voters to entrust him with the same big-daddy weapons Trump got.
If Trump is the same coward we’ve seen, some of these “bear/cub” ads will strawman DeSantis’s maladministration.
And, a predictable hedge:
- this could all be disrupted at any point by the sudden discovery of a new Trump sex crime (specifically: newly alleged or newly committed)
* pro-Trump ads that reference Trump's family separation policy, universally regarded as an unforgiveably cruel act perpetrated at breathtaking scale, will be sure to show the numbers. Stretch goal: Trump will _inflate_ these numbers, which will befuddle normies but which GOP viewers will love and DeSantis will attack him for doing. If we are lucky, a candidate will gain a nickname over it.
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Jesus christ.
I just realized: we are going to be subjected to a comparison of their literal penis sizes.
(Unless Trump is close enough to jail that discussion of penises would be an uncomfortable reminder of prison sex.)
Go ahead and call that a prediction, if you like.
I don’t want popcorn. I want to hurl.
Standby for my bank routing number : - )
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another prediction
Today’s briefing shows that the discussion on the right will consider the question of cleaning up the legal peril faced by various noteworthies who have put their necks out for the larger MAGAt project that was launched under Trump I.
- The candidates will highlight differences in the legal clemency they each propose to extend while President to those in the crosshairs of the American justice system
Spitballing, I’d guess the discussion might touch on:
-
which of the candidates has the skill and forceful personality needed to impose his will as King on the unwilling machine of the US federal government (which Trump did and was while in office) plus each of the states (particularly the “difficult” ones) that is needed to effect the cleanup
-
who belongs on POTUS47’s “Nice” List, and who does not (maybe “fend for themselves,” maybe “failed to kiss the ring while Trump wore it”); or maybe better as: which instance of legal peril ought to be cleaned up, and which not
-
whether the gears of justice that are grinding Trump will grind slowly enough that Trump can achieve office and save himself; and, whether even Trump, seasoned republic-taming warlord that he is, will be able to act swiftly enough once – how’s that for a Scorsese twist on “the first 100 days”?
Sadly, I think this topic does invite the ever-looming specter of penis size, so we may have that to look forward to.
And, a predictable hedge:
- this could all be disrupted at any point by the sudden discovery of a new Trump sex crime (specifically: newly alleged or newly committed)
leaving these here
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To clarify: when I say “those in the crosshairs of the American justice system,” I mean who among greatly extended Trumpworld, from the Paul Manaforts to the Stewarts Rhodeses and beyond.
Not general stuff about whether punishments are too harsh or unfairly administered. We might get some of that, since red meat has been a staple of the old Republican “war on crime,” but there may not be enough oxygen left in the room to spare for the old saw.
another prediction
IIRC, Trump committed some crimes while campaigning for office the first time. And I feel like he did so again today (but IANAL). I bet it’ll happen again.
- A candidate will arguably commit a serious crime via speech act while on the campaign trail
I assume there’s a wide range of possibilities here, including stuff like:
- soliciting aid/interference in the election, e.g. “Russia, if you’re listening…”
- promising to use the office to reward or punish for action taken in furtherance of getting Trump back into office (incl. keeping him out of jail long enough to be sworn in)
- illegally divulging state secrets (both Trump and DeSantis can play this one)
- threatening violence against a political target, e.g. directing some MAGAt mobs to target a GOPer or a judge or something
It would be amazing if this crime were to immediately terminate the offender’s campaign. We’ll see what Garland’s DOJ is made of, that’s for sure.
This doesn’t need the caveat about any new Trump sex crimes, nor (thankfully) does it invite the specter of penis size.
Shorter Trump: Goddamnnit! Biden is trying to pay the debts I racked up in Uncle Sam’s name. Doesn’t he get that it is against my principles to pay my debts?
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