I think there is a sort of bell curve of likely evacuation based on personal experience riding out a hurricane. At one extreme end of the curve, you have newcomers to a coastal area with zero hurricane experience who think it won’t be bad. At the other extreme end, you have the hurricane veterans who have seen it before, and think they can tough it out. The vast middle ground of the bell curve will evacuate because that’s the reasonable thing to do.
There are a few others that don’t fit that curve, like people afraid a shelter won’t allow their pets, or they’re too sick to move and too stubborn to ask for help.
Personally, I’m on the extreme end of veterans who have been through many hurricanes including Cat 5 Donna as a kid, and Cat 5 Andrew as an adult. I decided to ride out Andrew because my house was far from the shoreline and on high ground. If another Cat 5 hits Miami after we move there soon, I’ll probably boogie out because I’m not as young as I used to be, and not as willing to deal with the aftermath of downed trees and no power for a month.
As we all know, elections are rigged to favor the candidate who gets the most votes. Google uses a similar model to organize searches by “most searched”. Both are flawed systems that discriminates against unpopular assholes.
