Originally published at: The American Experiment Has Gone Off The Rails
A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version. The Jumble Of The Current Moment The collision of the Supreme Court’s radical end-of-term rulings with President Biden’s catastrophic debate performance is one of those quirks of timing that only history can provide. We would…
The Vast Right-Wing Coup’s near complete
The Court’s recent edicts are replete
With rules engineered
To roll back, as we feared
Our Core Rights, still we’ll NEVER retreat
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Turns my stomach!
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Very high chance we are witnessing the beginning of the end of the USA as a liberal and constitutional democracy. How fast will it decline? Nov 5th will reveal.
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Simon Rosenberg’s Hopium.
As I’ve been writing Bidenworld needs time and space to process what has happened over the past week and come up with a new plan. The NATO Summit is next week in Washington and the President is rightly focused on ensuring this vital meeting goes well in a period of enormous challenge. The party committees and campaigns will be doing private polling and focus groups to give us a deeper understanding of where are now. Party leaders will be talking and assessing. My assumption is that we will know much more about the next phase of our campaign by the end of next week or early the week after.
Yes there has been some not so good polling in recent days but there has also been good polling. Yesterday we got these three new polls (all polls can be found on 538):
- Ipsos/Reuters 40%-40% - Biden gains 2
- TIPP 43%-41% - Biden gains 2
- Bullfinch PA Biden 45%-44% - 1st Biden lead in PA in some time
The polling is not all moving in the same direction right now, and we need to be careful about jumping to conclusions based on a single poll. In addition to the polls above, a new CNN poll showed no movement in the race, as did a new Morning Consult poll and the Biden campaign’s own internal polling. As we’ve discussed here there is a lot of evidence that the debate did meaningful damage to Trump, so it’s my bet that if the race has moved, it will be a slight movement against Biden, not a big one as voters are not as inured to Trump’s ugliness and danger as the DC commentariat.
I think the writeup of a new Yahoo/YouGov poll which showed very little movement since early June captures where we are in this early post-debate polling:
A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll confirms what most viewers sensed after last Thursday’s presidential debate: that it was a disastrous night for the 81-year-old President Biden, who looked unsteady, sounded sick, stumbled over his words and, at one point, lost his train of thought entirely.
A full 60% of Americans, for instance, now say Biden is not “fit to serve another term as president.” Just 24% say he is fit. The president’s fitness rating has only been that low once before, in November 2023, and it has never been worse.
Yet the survey of 1,754 U.S. adults, which was conducted from June 28 to July 1, also shows that Biden (43%) remains statistically tied with his Republican rival, former President Donald Trump (45%), in a head-to-head matchup among registered voters — even after a performance that seemed to substantiate long-standing concerns about the president’s age and competence going forward.
In short, Biden’s vulnerability has never been more apparent — but Trump remains too flawed to fully capitalize.
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If Biden publicly declines more (or we find out about more episodes that haven’t been shared) and decides to drop out of the race, we’d be better off if he resigns and that he do it before the convention. It’s going to be much tougher for Kamala to be a non-incumbent candidate, and further decline on his part over the next 4 months will damage the ticket even if he isn’t on it.
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There’s a giant doin’ cartwheels, a statue wearin’ high heels
Look at all the happy creatures dancin’ on the lawn
Dinosaur Victrola, listenin’ to Buck Owens
Doot, doot, doo, lookin’ out my back door
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Bother me tomorrow, today I’ll find no sorrow,
Doot, doot, doo, lookin’ out my back door.
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D.K.:
So as I try to make sense of the jumbled political landscape before us, it helps me to set aside the handwringing, misdirected focus, and lack of proportion offered by those folks now. Already obsessed for the past year with Biden’s age? Setting you aside. Eager to reduce politics to petty infighting, personality clashes, and high school popularity contests? Not paying you much attention. It’s a process of elimination to try to refocus on the core things that really matter.
Right on!
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A bit O/T – after Stormy Daniels’ interview last night on Rachel Maddow, I checked her GoFundMe – it was $107,000. It is now over $600,000. That’s half a million dollars in less than 12 hours – GO STORMY!
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If the GOP wins in November, the first thing they will do is sabotage elections everywhere.
Your blue state will not be able to protect you.
The national GOP will hamstring your local politics, and the oligarchy will meticulously drown your elections with dark money, disinformation, spoiler candidates, a hostile media, and more. You will lose your blue government within the next couple cycles. They’ll go state-by-state, because nobody will be allowed to stop them.
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Project 2025 is specifically designed to negate any inertia our democratic institutions have. To make the decline faster and decisive and permanent.
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Finally got in!!!
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He mean 2nd Revolution of the Confederate states of America.
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Shouldn’t someone be paying this jackass a visit?
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This is a picture of my now passed away rescue dobie, Holden. He always found a way to make me feel better about my worries, and this week has been full of growing worries about our future as a nation.
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It just occurred to me that the 2024 version of “but her emails” is now “but his debate.”
Yet, at most President Biden‘s debate performance showed us was him having a bad day. I’ll take that bad day in a heartbeat over one second of the orange orangutan.
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