WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. consumer spending plunged 7.5% in March, reflecting the growing impact of the coronavirus pandemic as Americans complied with stay-at-home orders.
Problem is, they’re not counting the right things.
If they’d adjust the metrics and just focus on the markets for PPE, disinfecants, nonperishable foodstuffs and toilet paper, they’d see it… Winning!
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BELIEVE !
This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. I think the jobs report next week will make a lot of jaws drop though. I would expect that we’ll have lost at least one million jobs in April, if not two million. Also, the drop in second quarter GDP will probably eclipse any other reported GDP drop in the last hundred years, including any single quarter during the Great Depression.
Compute the UE rate any way you choose. People without pay don’t buy as much stuff. People sheltering from pandemics don’t hang out at the mall. When you can’t make money selling Chevy trucks in Texas, there just might be a problem.
saw a good discussion on MSMBC. When retail opens back up someone goes in a store and tries on a T-shirt, decides not to buy it. What do you do with that shirt?
Also, the drop in second quarter GDP will probably eclipse any other reported GDP drop in the last hundred years
Yes indeed, but where do economists and investment people come up with the idea of a ‘rebound’ in the 2nd half of the year? So much BS and grifting going on. Self-interest rules the day. Fuck 'em! You too Musk, calling Stay at Home policies “fascist.” We’re not here for to prop up hedge fund managers either. Let them fail.
Anyway, 3rd qtr is most likely going negative as well. And the 4th qtr, which bails out so many industries, might go negative as well. Probably not but why not?
Because the DOW is made up of a few banks, medical companies, credit card companies, and big stuff like walmart that are either relatively immune to the crisis or even have some advantages during it.
The business of America is… buoying stock prices. Most “economists” on TV are so focused on stock prices that they appear to have no idea that any other aspect of the economy even exists, let alone matters, other than how it affects stock prices.
“The Trump administration is hoping this downturn will be V-shaped, with a sharp fall followed by a rapid increase as stay-at-home orders expire and Americans go back to work and resume normal activities such as shopping and eating in restaurants.”
Also:
That’s pretty much what I was going to say. People with no pay don’t buy anything. People with reduced pay (our household income went down about 30% this month, and will stay down at least 20% for the foreseeable future) don’t buy discretionary items, such as restaurant meals, movie tickets, new TVs, cars or guns (well, some may buy guns, but I’m not one of them)… Opening up stuff won’t heal anything in itself (and may actually hurt if not done carefully). People aren’t going anywhere until they feel reasonably certain that the risk is minimal. Most people aren’t feeling that yet.