Former GOP Rep. Justin Amash (I-MI) announced on Tuesday night that he was launching an exploratory committee to run for president as a member of the Libertarian Party.
this might actually cost Joe Biden Michigan.
Do you want to re-elect Trump, but can’t bring yourself to vote for him? Vote Amash!
I realize that won’t fit on a campaign poster, much less a bumper sticker, but there it is, the only truth you need to know about this fuzzy nut’s quest for more face time,
Is Biden still running?
I couldn’t tell.
Don’t overestimate Amash’s “popularity” among Michigan voters; it isn’t much to warble about.
This should be a good thing, it will pull libertarians away from Trump and give the unfortunate dolts who can’t figure out who to vote for someone else other than Trump. I doubt Amash will take any votes from Biden.
I get that Amash is offering a vision of an anti-Trump or post-Trump Party, but is the Libertarian outlook really going to find that many voters in the midst of this crushing pandemic? The idea that “you do you” seems even more ill-fitted to our current realities than usual.
And will Amash support the bailouts and federal help in the trillions of dollars? Does he support abortion rights and privacy rights generally? Will he be a friend to gay people who want to be treated as equals?
Even if his campaign is just a way for Republicans to vote against Trump, I question how much appeal Amash has, in Michigan and nationally, in 2020.
I hadn’t considered Michigan but, I think there are a large number of Republican-leaning voters who might prefer an alternative from voting for Biden. Also, consider where so many states will be since mostly it’s the GOP states opening without listening to the experts.
right there is my mondo concern.
Biden’s stuck in his house like the rest of us and is doing online town halls and briefings. But you already knew that.
So, it appears that Donald Trump is not the only malignant narcissist in town.
Really.
In a more normal time, this bid would have a small chance of costing Biden the Michigan electoral votes, by pulling independents and non-Trumpist Republicans. In a pandemic year that won’t be nearly back to normal by early November, most of those people will vote for solutions rather than let-me-fend-for-myself ideology.
I suspect the previous President will make phone calls even though Amash has never been Democratic. If he runs anyway, he’ll get millions from a few rich libertarians, spend it winning a few thousand votes in Michigan and a few thousand votes in the rest of the country, and spend the rest of his life famous in a not-very-favorable way. I doubt it will tip anything like Bush-Gore-Nader Florida.
Amash is sincere and very conservative.
Something that Amash needs to explore - Are the marginal number of votes that he may potentially receive worth the number of threats that he and his family definitely will receive?
TLDR: “I’m going to lose my House seat this election cycle.”
As long as he doesn’t siphon votes from likely Biden voters it shouldn’t matter. Biden doesn’t need R’s who might swing to him, he just needs to hold the D vote. If R voters aren’t likely to vote for Biden (because of the D next to his name) then having Amash get their vote only damages Orange Voldemort, not Biden. For example in Michigan, if the voters who elected Trump split for Amash, then it makes Biden more likely to win the state. It’s only if some D voters decide Amash is the better candidate. Personally I doubt that, at least not enough to make a difference.
The only way this hurts Biden is if voters who were likely to vote for him swing to Amash - again, I don’t see that in significant numbers. Otherwise it will help Biden in any state where Amash can siphon votes from numnuts, making it less likely he carries the state.
In any event, I don’t see Amash getting more than 2% anywhere. Yes, enough to swing a state, but I think it’s most likely that swing goes in Biden’s direction.
He get far more millions from GOPers.
This is the only possible path to victory for Trump, he desperately needs 3rd party candidates, particularly in places like Michigan. They will absolutely belly up tons of money to support his run.
Personally, I am pretty skeptical that Amash will be able to throw the election in Michigan, but add another 1 or 2 third party candidates, and the odds shift significantly.
This is as concerning as Jesse Ventura running with the Green party.
Before anyone sneers at Governor Turnbuckle (as he’s affectionately known next door in MN). no one thought he had a chance at being Governor in MN. Not only did he have a chance, he won and served one term and no one, to the best of my knowledge, has ever complained about his leadership.
Dear hubby lived in St. Paul at the time and he always tells me as to how everyone disparaged the run
Until he won.
Now, to be sure, he’s espoused more than a few conspiracy theories and has some residence in Mexico where he protects himself from some deep State or alien something or other. I’ve heard him on Howard Stern and he’s a bit of a whackadoodle. But he’s still very much loved around here.
So there’s a lot going on here with third party bids - not uncommon in any election. And yes, it will take away votes from the GOP and Dems. However, the two main parties bring this on themselves by bringing forth candidates that have minimal appeal. Folks are looking for alternatives. That’s where we are.
Dear Rep Amash:
I appreciate your integrity. You had the courage to stand up to Trump and his wrongdoing, and to even thumb your nose at your fellow GOP members who traded their souls for a few Scotus judges and tax cuts. I appreciate all that you have said against Trump.
But seriously, if you want to get rid of Trump, DON’T RUN! I know you don’t have much love for Joe Biden, but he is the only guy left who can beat Trump. The best you can do is take votes away from Biden, which will allow another electoral college f***up victory and 4 more years of Trump.
Our country literally will not survive another 4 years with Trump. It will with Biden. If you want to challenge Biden in 2024, be my guest. Hold Biden accountable. But for now, all that matters is getting rid of Trump. Use your power and sway in Michigan and take it away from Trump by supporting Biden just this year. You owe us at least that.
Signed,
The Greater Good and Common Sense
Good news for the Trump reelection campaign. As always, everything’s comin’ up Donald!
It doubt it. Any votes Amash gets are likely to come from people who were gonna hold their nose and vote for Trump anyway, because they can’t stomach voting for a D. Or, they weren’t gonna vote at all. I don’t see Amash pulling a significant number of votes from Biden. I could be wrong. It may effect down ballot races if he draws voters who weren’t gonna vote at all, but I see this as a positive for Biden, at least in Michigan.
Also, I don’t think Amash is really all that popular. Even in Michigan, many R voters don’t like him because he betrayed The Naked Emperor. I just don’t see him drawing many votes from anyone. This is a vanity project on par with Bloomberg. Many million dollars will be set on fire, in vain, just to watch the flames I guess.