Race-Resetting Super Tuesday Sets Up A Long Fight For The Democratic Nomination | Talking Points Memo

I’m sorry but no- The governor of Massachusetts is a republican. Elizabeth Warren needs to stay right where she is in the senate this cycle. We cannot afford to lose her senate seat or her voice in the senate this cycle to another Scott Brown like cluster F@%!

13 Likes

Despite what it seems, the majority of engaged Democrats don’t post their politics on social media or comment sections.
They do vote.

8 Likes

Biden wasn’t joined by Harris in Oakland yesterday so that might signal that she isn’t interested in being on the ticket. She didn’t endorse him either, as far as I know. It might happen later but her endorsement yesterday could have been a big boost for him in the primary.

The corporate media got the result they wanted. “Super Thursday” was Biden’s comeback. Older voters turned out to support the only Dem candidate who wants to cut Social Security.

2 Likes

I disagree with the headline that this will be a long primary fight.

The trajectory of this race fundamentally changed, and it will effectively be over by the end of March.

  1. That’s how many delegates FL has. What will Sanders get out of it? I’d say less than 30. Biden will take home at least 160. In other words, he’s about to double his Super Tuesday haul in 1 contest on March 15th.

  2. That’s Georgia on March 25. Biden will easily net over 40 or more delegates.

Biden will also now be competitive in the midwest and win OH and IL.

There’s also the impact of Super Tuesday on Sanders’ soft supporters. Many will leave him and his vote share will drop.

There will be no patience among Dems for the types of games Sanders played in the spring of 2016 when he got trounced on 3 Super Tuesdays and continued the fight. He can do it if he wants, but people will ignore him and the party will rally to Biden.

Biden has proved he doesn’t need money to beat Sanders. So even if Sanders strings this thing out, it won’t cost much in resources for Biden.

13 Likes

Maybe not a long fight. Joe won states last night that Bernie won in 2016 and this campaign isn’t loaded with caucuses. Last night results are the difference between caucuses and primaries. Minnesota and Maine were caucuses in 2016 and Bernie won handily.

3 Likes

Biden raised half as much. Won with no ground game/field offices in any numbers. Word-of-mouth advertising that went viral. Biden has turned conventional wisdom on its head. Old dog, new trick.

What has Sanders gotten from his $116M 2020 spend? Certainly not enough to warrant more.

jw1

4 Likes

It was a disaster from which Bernie’s campaign may not recover. We can’t afford to lose in November with Biden as the nominee. I am more worried than ever.

2 Likes

Oh you didnt detect any resistance to Biden?

Go look at the numbers again.

The way I see it they all took a minority of the vote. Someone has to see that.

We can’t afford to lose in November with a ham sandwich as the nominee. What’s your point?

7 Likes

If Biden is the nominee, which now looks likely, that’s when they can panic bigly.

Even as a die-hard Biden supporter, I get your point.

I know it feels like 100 years ago, but in December/January when we were in the middle of impeachment, I had cited this date as when reality might hit Trump assuming that Joe Biden effectively wrapped up the nomination.

But for Mike Bloomberg’s presence on the ballot, Biden probably nets 140-150 delegates. As of right now, he’s at 102.

Whatever the case, Trump now knows who is opponent is, and he is probably more scared of Biden now than ever because Biden beat 2 billionaires, Sanders, the Russians, the media and other rivals on a shoestring budget. He crushed them all. He drove record turnout. He brought thousands of white voters who have voted GOP in the past into the party.

The resignation scenario I sketched out a few months back now goes live like the NYT needle from Nate Cohn.

11 Likes

You can ignore the Hispanic vote if you choose.

1 Like

With Biden as the nominee we are crashing. There aren’t any parachutes for 99 Percent of us.

Gee, of course there is. It’s still a good result for him, and that’s not the point of my post anyway.

It was your opening statement.

I think that’s right. Warren didn’t win MA and didn’t place in CA except for a few congressional districts. She brings no votes that Biden otherwise wouldn’t win.

Biden either goes for a candidate to juice black turnout (Harris, Abrams, Susan Rice), picks a latino/a candidate (like Catherine Cortes Masto) or goes the midwest route (Klobuchar, Pete, Baldwin). It’s not going to be Warren. Her shot to wield leverage was to do well in MA and CA and get 150 delegates. She won’t be anywhere close to that. She needs to return to the Senate, help us in key down ballot races and start crafting legislation for the next Dem administration that takes office next January.

8 Likes

LJB, I don’t think that most Americans are “shrugging off” the latest Trump stunts out of apathy, but they have been preserving their strength, keeping their powder dry, and biding their time until a) primaries in which they are coming to vote in large numbers; and b) November, when they are going to pull the lever for Democrats. The enthusiasm for getting Trump out of office is out there. Don’t give up on the decency of most of the American people.

8 Likes

Only took up less than one third of the length. I just thought it wasn’t necessary to add “don’t argue with me on that one point, it’s unimportant”.