As of this morning it looks like impeachment is happening, folks. After the op-ed where red to blue district Dems like Spanberger, Luria, Slotkin and Cisneros came out in favor of impeachment, Pelosi will get to 218 by the weekend (she might have it already). There have been a few more (Castor, Delgado, Crist) who have either flipped to yes or declared yes for the first time.
Before yesterday of the 97 who had not committed ‘yes’ to impeachment, 42 are from solid blue districts (D+8 or >), 34 are from red districts, 21 are light blue (D+1 to D+7). So if if folks from red and light blue districts are moving, you can pretty much guarantee that the 42 from solid blue districts will move too as well as those from D+5 to D+7 seats. That would put the Dems at over 200. The Speaker weighing in makes this a done deal.
The Ukraine thing moved a lot of the anti-Trump, but impeachment skeptic, coalition off the fence. Josh is a good example of that from the left. But the real reason red state/red district Dems are moving to impeachment is because of Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren. Trump was trying to take out Joe Biden in the primary. Biden is their preferred candidate. Warren is viewed by red district/red state Dems as the worst possible candidate for them. She is viewed as polarizing and too liberal for a GE. If you ask an Elaine Luria or Abigail Spanberger if they’d rather go into a GE with Biden or Warren, the question answers itself.
This also goes to show that Trump always makes these kinds of mistakes. This was utter recklessness on his part, but there are few real heroes in our world. People are more motivated if it affects them personally. In the case of the uncommitted House Dems, the prospect of losing a candidate who was the strongest match up for them and had the best alignment with their agenda and their voters is what’s moving this. The laws of politics are biting Trump in the ass.
FWIW, I do not agree that UKR is worse than the #trumprussia scandal and more deserving of impeachment. The UKR scandal is a brazen, but failed and clownish attempt to smear a political opponent. #trumprussia was a wholesale act of treason, inviting and encouraging a hostile foreign power to break our laws, violate our national security in order to pick a puppet POTUS and damage our country in untold ways. It isn’t close in my view.
The fact is what Trump did to date crossed the threshold of impeachment. The fact that the anti-Trump coalition didn’t get behind impeachment was a weakness that Trump and the GOP exploited. It’s good to finally see the rest of the anti-Trump coalition recognize that you cannot have an unfit, traitorous puppet of foreign powers running our country. If you don’t stop him early, it only gets worse.