One Week In, Ukrainians Hold On To Kyiv, Face Losses In South | Talking Points Memo

I’m always amazed that it seems every Russian billionaire is in the extractive economy business (oil, gas, coal) or in manufacturing of military hardware.

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1putin7

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Then you’re missing the most basic point.

NOBODY is advocating STARTING WWIII.

WWIII is already BEGUN, it’s happening right now. If russia takes Ukraine, then he goes after the baltics and poland next, then romania/bulgaria, etc.

Nobody wants war. But we’re in it. And just like in the last ones, we can choose to sit out the first few years while countless millions die and then show up at the end to clean up the mess, or we could try a radical approach of actually stopping the whole thing before it can really get rolling.

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No coincidence, most of the Americans plutocrats are in the same industries.

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The chances of Putin suffering a fatal heart attack have increased exponentially over the last week. Maybe not anytime real soon, but even Hitler eventually crossed paths with a dude with a briefcase bomb. I guess the extra-long tables might be sensible in that regard.

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The problem with letting Ukraine fall, though, is that Putin will then have what he supposedly fears most: another NATO country bordering his own: Poland.

Never mind that his fears show weakness and paranoia, he will have more of an incentive to cause more trouble for millions more people.

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Yeah - you know who else did that? Our man Franco.

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See putin’s plans reference above and well reported on elsewhere. This is a planned holocaust and we’re only at the beginning of it.

I thought “Never Again” meant that the next time someone told us they were going to Holocaust, we were supposed to stop them, not wait for them to do the whole of their holocaust plan.

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True. The fact that Putin called Macron is the tell. Putin is feeling the pressure and looking desperately for an out. The French are playing along so as to give Putin a chance to save face.

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Russia’s Ministry of Defense gave a briefing on Thursday blaming foreign volunteers and weapons deliveries for delays.

This is what happens when you realize your bookings are not trending to your forecast. End of quarter is coming.

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I think Putin agrees with you @tena, actually.(!) I’m beginning to think that while Kyiv is a ‘nice-to-have’ goal in his mind, it’s not at WWIII costs. What he really wants is control of the East and South, including ports like Odessa, and gaining access to natural oil and gas reserves those areas afford, especially off-shore. Other commentaries I’ve been following about the basic geopolitical economics of this strategy seem to bear this out.

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Anybody remembers the Iraqi card deck?

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I fear the captured Russian soldiers “confessing” or claiming “ignorance” on TV are in for decades of trouble when they get back home to their mothers and the Russian military courts.
Better the Ukrainians should not have IDed them. They’re all going to prison.

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This article is quite good. About banks investment banking in Russia after Crimea invasion, and investing possible against their own human rights policies. JP Morgan, Credit Suisse, others.

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I really hope he is deciding that on balance, the one thing is not worth the price. And he just might - it’s been a week and a smashing failure of a week for him - he has to be looking at where he might have options to get back out of this because it’s so egregiously stupid. Even he can see that, I’m sure.

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That’s all the Soviet Union had by the time it fell apart. 70+ years of economic quagmire and human deprivation. So when it came time for the dispersion and consolidation of state assets, the extractives were what the proto-oligarchs had to work with.

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Bingo. Twitter will move on and and then that will be that. Thank you.

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It was lovely to see her more relaxed! She is very witty in addition to being brill.

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But we’re not in WWIII. We are in the midst of Russia invading Ukraine. If Russia moves on NATO territory, THEN we will be in WWIII.

We aren’t sitting anything out. We are destroying Russia’s economy while pumping billions of dollars and massive amounts of weaponry into Ukraine and providing food and shelter to refugees. If Russia prevails in Ukraine - whatever that means and whenever that is achieved - they will be bankrupt, their machinery and weapons will be held together with duct tape and their troops will be starving. If Putin decides to take THAT army into Poland, he’s fucked. Further, China and others will be much more likely to stay on the sidelines if NATO reacts defensively to a Russian invasion.

If, on the other hand, NATO attacks Russia in Ukraine, now NATO is the aggressor and China has much more incentive to get involved - taking Taiwan, sending arms and cash to Moscow, etc. And who knows where India and Pakistan end up in that equation.

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