I never said he would be reelected, just that it’s possible, but only if he cheats way more than he did in 2016. And that’s precisely what’s so scary, that being president gives him vastly more ways to cheat, legally, quasi-legally and not at all legally. He’s obviously going to use the pandemic to help him win, in all sorts of ways. He’s clearly going be all over Biden for supposedly being weak, stupid, senile, erratic–even a molester. Trump has no shame there. And many will buy it, because they’re stupid or think this is a game and they’d rather side with the bully than his victim.
He will use the full force of the federal government to win. He will use his GOP allies at the state and local level. He will use his overseas allies. He will use shadowy ratfucker outfits, hackers, slime-slingers, the RWNM, churches, celebrities for hire, PR firms, etc. He’s going to run the table, and that is how he will win, IF he wins. Frankly, I’m worried about Biden being his opponent, because as likeable as he might be, he’s not a fighter and to be honest I don’t think he’s that bright.
If Trump loses, it’ll be because he’ll be so unpopular by November that no amount of cheating can help him, and it would be too obvious that he cheated if he did win. In a fair contest, I’d say he has a 10-15% chance of winning. In the contest that will actually take place, I’d put it at more like 30-40% and you or I refusing to believe that he could win doesn’t change that in the slightest.