It should be noted that no candidate since 1976 who has won both Iowa and New Hampshire has not gone on to win the nomination. Also, apart from 1992, the candidate who won either Iowa or New Hampshire has gone on to win. Downplay Iowa all you wish, but they usually pick the winner, like it or not.
Yes, they do, like most aging white populations do. It’s not representative, IMO, of more and more states in the 21st century where people are younger, of color and of different religions.
My prediction: If Biden wins Iowa, it’s a done deal. He’s the nominee. If Bernie wins Iowa and then New Hampshire, and Biden comes in 2nd in both states, he and Biden will be battling until the last primary. So, in that scenario, your vote could actually mean something if you live in a late-primary state.
But what if Sanders and Warren are a close 1-2 in Iowa and Biden is 4th or even 5th? Will the “establishment” abandon Biden and get behind Warren to stop Bernie?
None of it matters because the Bernie-bots are already disrupting the legitimacy of the caucuses saying it’s been stolen from them yet again.
Most three year olds eventually get that they aren’t going to win everything and that, if they don’t, it’s not rigged.
The Bernie-bots have not progressed beyond this point and that’s going to continue through every caucus, primary and the convention unless he’s the winner of all of them.
My state California is finally going to make itself relevant in primary season since it will be in March as opposed to June when it’s been held for way too long which made our voice meaningless.
The other thing about CA moving up, our votes still might not matter. I voted early in 2008, for Edwards - DON’T JUDGE - and he ended up dropping out right after my mail-in was sent. He quit after not doing well in SC, IIRC.
They’re really buzzing about some last-minute precinct location changes – one due to a gas leak at school, the other to accommodate larger than expected crowds – but it’s all a big Bernie voter suppression scheme.
But in other (good?) news, Rush Limbaugh just announced he has advanced lung cancer.
This would likely be true for any state that goes first, simply because of the way the media looooooooooooooves to anoint a front-runner, which then becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. The notion—and I don’t know if this is what you were getting at, so if not my apologies—that Iowans somehow “know best” when it comes to picking candidates is not supported.