Pretty much sums up my reaction. Soooo tired of trying to pay attention and critically evaluate, but not buying the horserace reporting. Something is off, and I wish I was smart enough to know what it is.
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I’m pretty sure that Silver uses a nonparametric Monte Carlo simulation model. He does thousands of randomized electoral college outcome computer runs based on current state polling data. That way he can ascertain how many times Harris wins out of, say a thousand runs, and how many times Trump wins out of a thousand runs. If Harris averages 51 times and Trump 49 times, with associated MOE, then that’s the output.
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Just a few problems with polarization as a framework of thinking regarding where we are:
- It confuses more than it helps because the framework provides so little information content. Items below will clarify this a bit.
- It makes the situation seem intractable, that is appear as a static event beyond our control.
- Defining it as a static event avoids looking closely as to why we have what we have. Sure, some MM may think of this as a feature so they do not piss anyone off, but it is not if the goal is to inform.
- It invites citizens and politicians to never change, to never take responsibility.
- It avoids examining the character of the major actors in the system by shifting almost all the blame to an amorphous mob of voter thought.
- It disinvites examining the history of how we came to this moment.
Probably more could be said, but bad frameworks such as this tend to exasperate the problems we have, IMO.
Small edit: in contrast, look how our moment is treated today by David Kurtz. It is an opportunity to examine this moment with a framework where we can have insight into the future (I am not saying predict). It allows us in the future to look back and see how well we thought about the moment.
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That’s a good point. I remember learning about how to reduce bias in your sample, but I don’t recall ever really learning the language to describe deliberate mis-sampling. I recall hearing “figures don’t lie, but liars can figure” all the time. Some of those polls may in fact have excellent precision and accuracy, but not actually measuring what we think they are.
It would be interesting to understand if and how Silver controls for that.
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Just wanted to throw this in here: www.electoral-vote.com. A very handy site.
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Averaging multiple measurements together is totally fine if and only if those measurements are all independent samples of the same underlying population (independent and identically distributed, in the jargon). For example, estimating the proportion of red marbles in a jar by drawing several separate handfuls and averaging the results.
Averaging garbage together just gets you more garbage. If one poll happens to draw more republicans than democrats, then another might do the reverse and averaging the two together would tell you something about the underlying population.
But if a poll is deliberately engineered to return a biased sample, or if one pollster changes their turnout model based on other pollster’s results, then they are no longer independent and averaging those polls together doesn’t improve your understanding of the sampled population.
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trump promises to fire Jack Smith two minutes after taking office.
Doesn’t this have to be done by the Attorney General?
Will the AG need Senate approval before this can happen?
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People talking about ‘puppetmaster Putin’ are mistaking a partner for a puppet. Elon’s not taking orders. He’s working hand-in-hand, for his own purposes: money, and ego.
Trump is a useful idiot.
Elon is an active participant.
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Tell him “apology accepted IF he votes for Harris”
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It’s worse than that in a sense. Yes, you get muddy, but the pig wins.
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I would definitely find a new advisor. It was totally unprofessional, but you will wonder going forward if he really has your best interests at heart.
Ditch the jerk.
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No, he wants to be president so he can throw out the garbage. And he would, too.
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There will never be a repeat of the last Civil War with separation between states, because the divide now isn’t along state borders. Instead it’s Rural Red vs. Big City Blue within each state.
For example, my state of WA is considered a Blue state, but 39% of the state voted for Trump in 2020 in the rural areas. The urban areas of Seattle and other communities around Puget Sound are what carried the election for Biden with 60% of the vote. How do you split this up? It’s similar for other states.
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The three basic reasons traitors traitor: ideology, money, and ego.
Flattery will get you everywhere with Elon.
At least now we know why he went full trumper, he needs that pardon.
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If she wins NC (not an unlikely outcome) then Trump has no path to victory.
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Even more Kosovo than that, can walk past houses around here where every other house is either a Harris or trump sign, right next door.
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Not since the FEMA agents got in there to “lose ballots due to flooding”.
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Words to live by. There are variations because the source is various public speeches.
First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist.
Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a trade unionist.
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.
—Martin Niemöller
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29,000 for the McDonalds crowd you say?
Uh, that’s the total population of the town in PA that TSF was in.
What is the population of Feasterville Trevose?
There are 28,245 residents in Feasterville Trevose, with a median age of 44.6. Of this, 46.69% are males and 53.31% are females. US-born citizens make up 78.83% of the resident pool in Feasterville Trevose, while non-US-born citizens account for 14.51%. Additionally, 6.66% of the population is represented by non-citizens.
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