It’s hard for me to take seriously a report put out nearly 11 months before the election. That’s a bunch of lifetimes in politics.
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And actual enforcement of Federal Election Laws, but that would require a strong DOJ leader. Oh well.
Totally agree, but if it helps scare the crap out of complacent DEM/IND voters, so much the better.
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This is why I love reading TPM. The conventional wisdom is that the GOP has already won 2022, but the conventional wisdom often turns out to be wrong when subjected to analysis.
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Meanwhile, on planet Cheese…
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“Inflation” (or “the GOP riff on inflation”), school gender/race/curriculum fights, and conspicuously timely migrant waves and urban violence triggered by angry police will all play a part.
But that would be true with or without new maps.
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Can I get this in a normal saline solution to use as an I.V. drip, please?
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Thanks to Trump I may never be able to relax again.
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A lot of it can be taken seriously as the number of competitive districts is so small. Cook listed 63 “tossup” races in 1994. There are 14 this year. The problem is the gradual replacement of representative democracy with partisan jiggering to assure electoral outcomes. As a result, the US and Russian electorate are quite similar in their passivity. Kevin McCarthy is my representative and is slated to take over Pelosi’s job. This poor man can barely speak in coherent sentences and wants us to know the secret of “baby carrots”. We’ll get two years of deflection and stalling, along with the inevitable erosion of US competitiveness. Part of the problem is that the incumbent resource extraction industries that support McCarthy have little concern about US competitiveness generally.
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In Michigan, a citizens’ initiative to create a “non-partisan” redistricting for the state legislature may be showing some positive results:
Any comments from Michiganders on this?
And might this impact redistricting for the US House?
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Qevin McQarthy is Unspeaker-able…
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I’ve said it before…If a state like Georgia gained more than a million new residents and they are all predominantly blue, while the rural red vote is shrinking, you have to put those people somewhere, and all of the districts have to have the same population. This amounts to republicans having to dilute their ruby red districts, and really pack the blue ones…but that can only go so far.
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Exactly why I came here!
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Imagine the GOP rats swimming for their lives with Adam and Liz smiling from afar on dry land after the insurrection report comes out.
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Missouri released its maps and the Current 6R-2D map remains the same, but the Dem districts got a little bluer and 1 of the R districts is trending blue so it could be 5-3 by 2024.
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Not when it’s the Dems in second place!
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Every seat counts!
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Yep. It just has to thread that needle between motivational (YEA!) and discouraging (BOO!).
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The sinking of a massive nation is a slow affair. The Republicans not only want to win elections, they want to make sure they never lose the next election due e.g. to criminal exposure. Most important, they have shown that the bulk of them are ready to back an autocrat. Trump is a bit long in the tooth, so you have to look at what the GOP is conjuring. Ted Cruz will never be president, and there are many barking dogs who lack national leadership packagability.but other senators such as Josh Hawley and Tom Cotton have been well groomed and would not hesitate in using power to punish opponents and demand patronage. One of the scariest outliers to appear on the scene, JD Vance, as idiotic as Trump, nevertheless could leverage a Senate win in Ohio and run if Trump craps out. He’ll provide plenty of oxygen for the Fox machine, so the Murdochs may go with him. Way more of the whacky stuff than with Hawley. And the public doesn’t hate him. Yet.
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From the Financial Times:
College-educated white women shifted decisively to the Democrats in the 2020 election, joining forces with African-American women and Latinas to deliver Joe Biden and running mate Kamala Harris the White House, according to an analysis of election data. Preliminary estimates suggest the Biden-Harris margin among white women with college degrees widened to an average of 22 points. This represents a big change from 2012, when they were fairly evenly split between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama, according to a voter database from Catalist, a progressive data organisation. They shifted Democratic to Hillary Clinton in 2016, but only by single-digit margins, and only during the 2018 midterms did the Democrats begin winning among this group by double-digits.
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