Is Redistricting Actually Going Better For Democrats Than Expected?

While the stretch between late December and the beginning of January is usually marked by slow news days patched over with pre-written, reflective stories to fill the front pages, there’s been no such lull in the redistricting corner. 


This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://talkingpointsmemo.com/?p=1399616
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As many of those voters spread to the suburbs from metro areas, and as white, college-educated, suburban women have swung hard toward the Democrats in recent elections, Republicans have gone to work cracking those districts with tricks like attaching them to large swaths of bright red rural areas.

I seem to remember that white college women swung for Trump?

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“Republicans are not poised to scoop up dozens of new seats, to win the 2022 election by a landslide before a single vote is cast.”

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“I was told there would be doomsplaining.”

C’mon, Riga – get with the beltway narrative!

You’re supposed to weep, gnash your teeth, and ululate over “the unstoppable GOP takeover”.

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Not a fucking thought to policy to help people, just fascism.

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Hey…the media likes a TIGHT horse race.

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I guess the plus side here is that the GOP has already “trimmed the sails” of the bad ship Gerrymander to the point that they really can’t harness any more wind than they currently have and the wind is changing direction (something they just can’t control), which will eventually force the ship in a new direction, whether they like it or not.

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Submitted for your consideration…

In any event, should be the much-needed DEM GOTV effort in 2022 and 2024,

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Instead of being gaslighted by The Hill, look at the actual analysis by Cook:

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house

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“Dem DISTRICTS in Disarray!!”

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Sorry; the ratings link works, but the analytic articles require subscription to get past the headline and first few sentences.

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That is what the bastards did to my district.

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Hey, com’on now. That’s just totally unfair. Fascism helps some people.

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The short answer to this is undoubtedly, ‘YES’.

The Dems have turned or are in the process of turning previously heavily gerrymandered states, MI, PA, OH, NC into fairer, more competitive states.

The GOP maxed out in GA, TX, FL previously and can only muster a few net gains (maybe +4 max). Dems are making major gains out of CA/NY/IL. GOP has also lost seats in WV, OH.

Dems gained seats in OR, NM, locked in gains in NJ, NV, VA, and are poised to pick up seats over the course of the decade as more suburban regions trend blue.

Overall, the map for 2022 will have around 223-226 districts that Biden carried in 2020. It could go as high as 230 depending on court ordered claw backs from GOP gerrymanders in NC/OH (and possibly TX if the Fed courts actually do their jobs and interpret enforce the law?).

That’s a great map for the Ds. If Biden gets his approval number up post Omicron wave, I’d say that the Dems should be favored to hold the House. At any rate, redistricting will not be the reason why the GOP wins the House (if they win it), and it could be a reason why they lose the 2022 elections.

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Yes–but the court appointees Trump got in there may work as an anchor on slowing down the ship’s movement in that new direction.

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There is time for the economy to continue the upward trend. People are happier when they have some $$$ in their pockets and Biden’s program should be putting shovels in the ground and putting people to work before the mid-terms.

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In 2018 Ds swept the House because women would not support tRump. In 2022 women will again be the backbone of a D victory because abortion.

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I’m hoping and wishing for the Silent Majority to rear their tired heads. I’m praying for people who didn’t like Trump, but are more conservative by nature, realize that Trump has his oily orange fingerprints all over the GOP. The people who were appalled by J6 and the MTG, Boeberts, Gossars, and their fellow beserkers.
Hawley put out a post the other day naming all the times he backed Democratic legislation and proposals. Though he’s not up for re-election soon, damn that, someone must have told him that his culture war decrier memes aren’t worker in his favor.

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It comes down to who’s counting the votes.

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What about the State A.G.s and certification of the vote counts?

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We need Voting Rights legislation.

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