Originally published at: Headlines Scream That Democrats Are Doomed Come 2030—But The Reality Is Murkier
From 30,000 feet, the trendlines for Democrats are cataclysmic: Blue states, particularly the powerhouses of New York and California, are leaching population that’s being hoovered up by southern states, particularly Florida and Texas. Come the 2030 census, those blue states will lose House seats and electoral votes and the southern bloc will gain them, making…
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If the Democrats are the only ones giving voice to the people going to the streets, the media has a big surprise heading their way
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Why is it that the GOP can devolve into a party of thugs right in front of our eyes and the media and Democrats just whine about the future of the left.
In our history there have always been shifts of population from one region to another. Sometimes politics, often times money has driven the movement. I had ancestors who went from Oklahoma to California during the Great Depression and those descendants are still there.
If FEMA goes under Florida could lose population. If Texas continues to go so far right that they piss off or scare a majority of their population, they could see a change in politics. After all, Texas was once a blue state. I have a feeling that most Texans don’t think a miscarriage should be a death sentence. And that has happened to women in that state.
So please, stop the incessant whining. The GOP does not let the fact that most Americans hate their guy scare them, so maybe Democrats should stop all the whining and just stand up to those bastards. That is what people want.
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If Democratic-leaning voters are moving to red/Republican states, but they cluster only in the urban centers, they can still be gerrymandered in a way that negates their votes.
At this point, electoral changes from in-migration to Sunbelt states will only yield fruit when the numbers are great enough to win statewide elections and take control of the governor’s office, secretaries of state, etc.
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Murc’s Law: “the widespread assumption that only Democrats have any agency or causal influence over American politics”
I don’t claim to understand it though; it seems profoundly perverse.
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Keep repeating to everyone who will listen:
The Democratic Party is The Law and Order Party, The Constitution Party, and The Anti-Corruption Party.
People of all stripes will eventually listen and begin to appreciate who we are and what we offer.
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Headlines Scream That Democrats Are Doomed Come 2030—But The Reality Is Murkier
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Funny… this TPM headline seems to be the one screaming
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Property values are tanking and jobs are drying up in former hotspots like Austin and Miami. A lot of the people who moved there over the past five years have found that a combination of horrible weather (and the insurance premiums to go with it), high prices, poor services and infrastructure, and batshit fascist politics doesn’t really make for a great place to raise a family or thrive, even if there’s no income tax.
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Headlines Scream
Fox and everybody else missed the destruction of Los Angeles a couple weeks ago, but they know exactly what’s going to happen in 2030?
Please. They’re talking punditry, not future facts. Sure, sure, America will never elect a black man, Republicans own Wisconsin and Michigan, Donald Trump makes perfect sense… Okay. Fine. Reporters are prescient.
What’s the weather forecast for June 13, 2030?
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Headlines are owned and controlled by Republicans.
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Do you do self fulfilling prophecy much?
Large movements of Democrats to Texas and Florida should put both states in play. If Democrats try they will win.
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That goes along with what I think. Low taxes sound great – until you have to deal with the quality of services (if there are any), infrastructure, and schools.
My family moved to New Orleans in the early '70s. It was a boom time for the area, rich with oil, mineral, and shipping money. But though there were attempts to move things forward, city and state politics prevented it, and by the mid-'80s both were floundering. The money and people went to Texas or the Mississippi Gulf Coast (which had its own boom, thanks to gambling, but still is Mississippi).
We’ll see how things develop.
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TPM comments contributor TexasLawyer had been insisting for years that Texas would inevitably turn blue, and was doing so at steady rate of 0.5% per year.
Other “Demographics is Destiny” proponents were completely convinced that as young people hit voting age there would be a big influx of Democratic voters in every election cycle.
Democratic leaders bet the farm that the Republicans’ xenophobia and hostility to immigrants would cause a backlash from the Latino community at the ballot box.
Then the 2024 election occurred where Latinos in Texas and Florida, and young men nationwide, shifted significantly Republican.
“Demographics is Destiny” adherents should just slink off and disappear. We’ve spent 15 years forgetting about messaging and lazily waiting for this “inevitable” blue voter surge to come to fruition.
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Blue Texas is coming. It’s only a question of when.
With Cornyn likely to lose the 2026 Texas GOP Primary to Paxton, there is a real chance that Dems could flip that Senate seat. We’ll have to see who Texas Dems put up as their candidate.
I’m also not so worried about Florida. The state is only mega hurricane away from a total insurance market collapse and depopulation (think New Orleans after Katrina).
But the real game-changer is Trump/MAGA overreach. Dems are racking up sometimes massive overperformances in special elections in 2025 so far. Combined with the town halls showing clearly angry constituents and a backlash is brewing for the GOP. It’ll likely show up as several supposedly ‘safe’ Republican House and Senate members either losing their seats or coming very close to losing in 2026. At least, they likely will if we’re allowed free and fair elections in 2026.
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Ah. A “Demographics is Destiny” adherent. This sounds like what TexasLawyer has been promising.
Not holding my breath.
This is ignorant beyond belief.
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No, I have repeatedly stated that Texas is turning blue at an average rate of 0.5% per year. And that’s still going to be true next November, notwithstanding last November’s substantial (and national) backslide.
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I don’t dispute your calculation of voting records that occurred in the past, but do object to any confident projections that the same trends will continue in the future, at the same rate, and that if we just wait patiently enough then good changes will result.
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I love it when people pretend to tell the future. We don’t even know if there will be elections in 2030; let’s concentrate on today first.
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Who the fuck said anything about waiting patiently?
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