Apparently the DNC, based on their level of effort.
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The data is messy, but the trend is clear:
Even during a good year for them (2024), Trump did worse than Romney in 2012 and barely beat McCain’s performance in 2008. Unless the bottom really drops out on the economy, 2028 is probably still too soon for it to go blue for President, but 2032 or 2036 are reasonable candidates.
However, we’ll likely see a lower statewide office go blue first (Senator, Governor, AG, etc).
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Well I’m not the fucking lame-ass DNC, so don’t cast your deflective aspersions on me.
Demographic change is real, and I am not waiting.
First stop - making sure we don’t have to say ‘Senator Paxton’ in 2027.
Demographic change may be real. The fallacy is believing that demographic change = electoral change.
This is correct on the voting percentages, but it elides the big increases in who is voting and how many eligible/registered voters there are.
Trump’s personality cult juiced voter turnout with a ton of low-propensity/low-information Texas voters in both of the last presidential elections. (It lowered traditional Republican turnout in 2016, but they’re all back on board now.) The Biden Malaise tamped down voter turnout on our side in 2024. Trump is off the ticket in 2028, and our side will be chomping at the bit. It’s a long way between now and then, but Texas could flip in 2028. Probably won’t quite get there, but it’s worth both sides paying attention to, because nothing else matters if Texas flips.
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Demographic change + a bunch of other factors = electoral change.
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“a bunch of other factors” is doing a lot of work in this sentence. Probably along the lines of 75% to 80%.
80-90% of the national vote is baked in.
Yes, it does.
My hesitation at saying Texas could turn blue in 2028 is that I expect the Texas GOP to go heavy on voter suppression if it looks like it could be close (which could happen if Dems flip the Senate seat in 2026). Think slashing voting sites even further in urban areas, federalized troops providing ‘security’ at the remaining sites, etc.
The Texas GOP won’t be going quietly into the night and I would expect them to use every legal or illegal trick in the book to stop the state flipping.
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The Texas GOP’s voter suppression efforts are a joke.
What is more important? The economy or demographics? I saw a poll recently and Trump was down on everything. All of it. Even immigration. And he has been in there for 6 months. If he lives long enough to finish out this term, we might be looking at a very different political landscape in 2030. No matter what the demographics are.
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Trump did told his supporters that they will never need to vote again. And he has been pretty good a keeping those promises. My guess is that there that there are elections at all, they will be like the North Koreans ones.
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So demographics is useless and ground game and messaging still determine elections.
I’m not trying to beleaguer the point, but instead to tamp down on any discussion that certain demographics or constituency groups are “natural Democratic voters”, which gives people in this forum and elsewhere false confidence that “their voters” will grow to a majority through some steady process.
“Hey look! Texas will be majority Latino! Their urban areas are growing faster than their rural counties! It’s going to turn blue soon!” = a lot of disappointed people in the future.
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Demographics, easily. Demographics is roughly 80-90% of the vote in any presidential election. Close elections get decided in that other 10-20%, but that smaller swing percentage only matters in the first place because of the underlying demographics.
“Oh well, let’s not pay any attention to the most fundamental thing around because we still have to do the work with a decisive slice of the electorate who don’t readily fit into the demographic picture.”
Good luck flipping Idaho, messaging man.
Good luck flipping Texas with the Latino and young male voters shifting to Republicans at the voting booth.
North Carolina voted for Obama in 2008 and everyone declared it to be a new blue state. Same thing happened to Georgia in 2020. People see a coin land on tails two straight times and believe it will come up tails each new flip.
I would agree, as a general rule. However, there are times when other factors are more important. War. Economic upheaval. I remember my grandfather voting for Reagan. The first Republican he had ever voted for. After 911 we saw the same thing. The point I am making is that Trump is taking us into uncharted territory, and we don’t really know what that means.
I have wondered if ICE and the deportations might have some effect on this trend. I just read a story about a young man who voted for Trump and just could not believe his wife was deported. Apparently, he thought Trump would owe him or something. If they keep this up there will be communities and individuals in red states that are affected by this. In many ways. Personally, and financially.
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