Nikki Haley on Saturday lost the Republican primary in her home state of South Carolina to Donald Trump, a not unexpected but still significant blow to the former governor in her effort to be seen as a viable alternative to the former president.
It will be interesting to see what the margin is when the final count is complete. 538 shows the difference shrinking all week to Trump +21 which is less of a slaughter than predicted previously. The shrinkage suggest Trump support is leaking which alone may encourage her but if she does even better than that she’ll probably call it a ‘win.’ Regardless she is bound to hold on until Super Tuesday where her chances look better.
It has tightened up some. I am most interested in the final percentage of votes for Haley. That might be an indicator, again of what might happen in November.
And of course, will she flip. She would be a fool at this point to do so. One, he will own her and after a lot of her more pointed and at times factual remarks during the campaign, he will want his pound of flesh. She could take a bit of a Cheney groove and have a great time on the talk shows, but then she is not a Cheney.
The call is usually based on statistical projections based on where the numbers are coming in, i.e. the most populated districts. Also, early voting started November 12th, and that may also be tabulated early.
If Trump beats her by around 20 points, that will roughly conform to the polling ahead of the election.
If Haley continues to get more than 40% of the vote, that will be interesting. It means that, even though Trump is the presumptive nominee, a very large percentage of Republican voters would rather have another candidate. South Carolina might be Haley’s home state, but it’s Trump’s base. Getting less than 60% of the vote there is actually a big blow to him.
He’s not looking good for the general in spite of what the polls might say.
Sure they would, but they’ll never vote for a Democrat. The hope would be that at least a few of Haley’s voters would sit out the election rather than vote for Trump.
And remember, this is theoretically Haley’s best state! Her home state, where she was elected governor. It’s all downhill from here.
Oh, sure. But now the score is 56 to 43%. Hardly a blowout win for the Defendant. We’ll see, eventually, what the final count is. But so far, it’s a far cry from what President Biden has been getting, and the Defendant is more than the equivalent of Biden on the Republican side: he’s literally their messiah, their great and sinful god. He ought to do more than a what? 13 point margin??