Too bad Crooks and Liars website doesn;t like my ad blocker. But then Lindsey’s BS… is it worth my time?
1 Like
bingo…
1 Like
Sounds like Lindsey is rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.
1 Like
A closeted gay man gaymansplaining women to follow traditional family structure? Huh?
A padded room awaits him.
1 Like
One way or another, Kamala Harris will spend much of the next 4 years in the senate, either as its president, holding Joe Biden’s former job, or as the junior senator from CA. I’m fairly confident that it’ll be the former. Dems will likely lose AL, which in unfortunate as I like Doug Jones, but take AZ, ME, IA, CO, GA & NC, and maybe one or two more, and make it 53-47 or 54-46. The GOP is about to enter a very dark time from which it may well never emerge.
3 Likes
Doug Jones needs a cabinet position.
6 Likes
Impossible to tell, but yet, we persist!
The last 3 years our thing was rallies and protests and speaker events.
With Covid-19, we went the billboard route. (And postcards & social media & text / phone banking)
If the Dems rally behind Amy, “suburban women” vote Dem, Charles Booker’s Hood to the Holler efforts show some fruition, and college frat boys vote for the Libertarian, then yes, I think we have a chance.
Also too: With the Breonna Taylor murder that isn’t turning out too well for cops or the AG, and the Black community comes out to vote against Mitch…because he is the reason for Daniel Cameron, the AG, that would help tremendously.
Damn, I wish KY meant a shit… to anyone…cuz it doesn’t…to anyone, but we who live here. So, I think… if they could have sent Kamala to Louisville and Joe to Lex or Eastern KY, that would have helped tremendously too!
Bill came to KY a lot, he cared, I have photos from 1992, 24 hours before that election…I have a killer story on the greatness of Bill’s people connection power. He has stumped here many, many times, mostly for lost causes, yet he persisted! KY loved them some Bubba, but they hated them some Hilz, except in the 'Ville. Shame that. And Hilz came to the 'Ville in '16!
2 Likes
Maine and Iowa (that Selzer poll is off. Only 200 respondents and some weird cross tabs, as I learned from a thread on the Hive.)
1 Like
Republicans are fighting to save their majority
You’d think something more than a six-figure salary was at stake.
Viceroy of the newly reoccupied former confederacy?
1 Like
How about ambassador to the newly separated Confederate States of Don’t Let the Door Hit You Where the Good Lord Split You?
1 Like
Quick summary of the 538 chart.
CO and AZ go Dem easily, AL goes Rep easily. +1 to Gryffindor.
NC and ME probable Dem. +2 to Gryffindor.
GA races predicted to split (I think this became increasingly likely to pick up at least one Dem because the national level race has now been leaning Dem a bit for several days). +1 Gryffindor.
At that point it’s 51 Dem. Then you’ve got Iowa essentially tied, and the second GA seat along with MT as possibles. Finally there’s the unlikely but still possible set, SC KS and AK. Blue wave gets us to 57 Dem, heh. Heck, they’ve got three more states at 1/7 chance of going Dem, AL TX and MS. In other words, they give better odds of the Dems ending up with 60 seats, than they give for Trump to win.
I think the big positive is that the big set of possible wins covers a wide variety of states. Trump squeaked out multiple states in 2016 by overperforming in very similar demographics in very similar states. In this case, states like MT IA and SC are much more likely to swing based on local factors. So losing IA doesn’t automatically mean losing the other two, for example.
1 Like
You mean Kentuchus or Arkansass?
1 Like
I certainly don’t place the Dems as heavy favourites to win any run-offs, but I do give them better chances now than I did at the outset of the campaign.
You make a good point about an exhausted electorate. But consider the disarray in the Republican camp.
With Trump defeated, how do they get his most ardent supporters to stop reading Qanon shit about how Trump was cheated and lick their wounds to fight again on January 5? Add to this, the Loeffler-Collins spat has gotten so entrenched, the bad blood may not dissipate by January and a chunk of the loser’s support chooses not to go out and vote.
I give Warnock slightly better odds (55%) than Ossoff (50%) in their presumed run-offs. Not great, but I didn’t think either would even get to a run-off when this whole thing started.
I lived in GA for 30 years. It will dissipate overnight against a common enemy…any Democrat.
Its actually not a new dispute in GA. Collins is the “outside Metro Atlanta” republican party, with a mountain spin (not that different from the southern spin, but there are differences), and Loeffler is the proto-typical Metro Atlanta republican…with the minus of being a woman. That dispute started long ago, and will continue long after, but again…they unite in the face of a common enemy. BTW, its largely why Georgia loves what rest of the country considers very bland republicans…they don’t overly offend either branch of the state GOP.
I am actually of the opposite opinion. Ossoff cleaned Perdue’s clock in the debate, and his team has an understanding of what it takes to keep an electorate mobilized for a run off. I know, I worked with them in 2017. Perdue is going to largely hand off what ever organization he had to the state GOP…and that transition time is something than can ill afford.
Warnock, however, probably has a slightly better chance of winning outright, though I think its still a reach. If it does come to a run off…its an uphill battle for him, as he becomes the common enemy. And BTW, Lieberman’s spawn is just as selfish as his father. I believe Warnock would have had this wrapped up if he didn’t insist on staying in a race he has literally no hope of winning, but is only dragging Warnock south of 50%. Apparently its a genetic thing.
I greatly appreciate the reply.
Ossoff killed Perdue in the debate. I really hope he gets over 50 as a result. In terms of the special, you may be right that, for the most part, they galvanize towards a common enemy. But maybe the Dems can still capitalize on Trump base demoralization and get to the finish line.
As I stated at the outset, these races weren’t even on most observers’ radars let alone a topic of public conversation outside GA back in September. The fact that they are, and continue to be on this 1st day of November is simply astonishing.
Keep it up GA! Give me reason to not treat you as drive-by whenever FL is blue.
1 Like
Michelle or Barack?