I think Trump has more than satisfied the intent element. We have FBI interviews of former WH counsel who have recounted first hand convos of them specifically advising Trump to return the stolen documents and Trump acknowledging that he had taken those documents and pointedly refusing to return them because he thought the docs belonged to him while also giving an alternative explanation that he was withholding the docs b/c DOJ was giving information to the Jan 6 committee (typical Trump pettiness). Either explanation demonstrates his knowledge that he took stuff that didn’t belong to him and that he pointedly refused to comply with a demand from the DOJ to return them.
All Garland would have to show a Grand Jury is that the docs were highly confidential and top secret to elicit an indictment. At trial, it would be a pretty easy conviction because the classification aspect isn’t an element of the potential crimes. It becomes more like a simple theft case. He took stuff that didn’t belong to him and hid the docs at his house. Feds got a warrant to search the house and found the contraband. The end.
The reason Garland is waiting, I think, is because he has a few leads on what Trump was doing with the documents he stole. Kash Patel has all but admitted that he was reviewing the information on Trump’s behalf. Patel and others were likely helping Trump evaluate the commercial and extortion value of the top secret material. That’s a crime. In addition, Trump may have taken additional steps to attempt to use the information improperly, either to trade it for money or favors, or to use it to extort others for his personal benefit. If Garland gets that info, we’re talking high treason and that would be un-spinnable.