Dr. Anthony Fauci on Sunday warned governors nationwide against easing COVID-19 restrictions amid declining rates of infection, citing his concerns over the country getting “back to the road of rebounding.”
This article gets at a key idea. There’s a point at which it’s safe to start easing restrictions and we aren’t there. Really, really wanting to be there and using declining infection rates as an excuse to be in denial about the science isn’t the same as actually being there. And if the god-damned governors who don’t get that would put on their thinking caps and realize that the quickest way to get there is to do it right until we do, we’d all be better off. Those of us doing our parts don’t control this. It’s a LITTLE FRUSTRATING.
Fauci explained why he views those decisions as premature.
The mathematics of system dynamics has been around for a while, certainly since the WWII era.
For governors themselves to be ignorant would be OK – but for their staff to be ignorant would be inexcusable, if it were true. More likely is that the relevant scientists are being sidelined in favor of “palatable” notions from political advisors, lobbyists, and others.
I remember something I heard late summer or early fall, looking at a graphs of various states infection rates you could see the flatline, and then it slowly rises up, measures such as lock downs are ordered, but when the infection rates start to go down governors/mayors open up things. The key here was that the falling of infection rates wasn’t below the the number when they started to rise.
This is the graph from CDC Daily Trends in COVID-19 Cases in the United States Reported to CDC
Every time we rise and then fall, we don’t fall bellow the previous rise. Maths be hard for me, but concepts with graphs I can understand. Why are we having the same damn argument over and over again?
This is exactly what I keep wondering here in Massachusetts – we have world-class scientists here, and even Moderna itself. So who exactly is telling Charlie Baker it’s time for happy hour?
So I guess I’m frustrated that it’s not just with COVID but so many other issues. I do not know how Dr. Fauci and other doctors keep calm while trying to explain the same thing that they explained 10 months ago.
Looks to me we see here the “holiday effect” and now we are declining to “back ground cases” level. Assuming all is well because of a dramatic drop is pound foolish in the extreme. It’s still a pandemic, it isn’t over. Even after we get our shots we still must mask up and keep distant. Otherwise we are playing Russian Roulette with a fully loaded pistol. The only way to end this nightmare is
Masks
Keeping distant
Vaccination
Being vigilant about what comes into your home by which I mean threat groceries as though they’d been handled bare hand by an asymptomatic person… soak veggies in soapy water, then rinse. Quarantine dry goods (where possible) for at least 3 days. Otherwise wipe the box with a damp paper towel (dampened in 7-10% bleach solution). Use soapy hands to wipe down frozen items and then rinse before placing them in your freezer.
I know this smacks of OCD but it has kept the darr household covid free so far.
I also wipe my keys and phone (carefully), door knobs, fridge handle and anything else that’s touched frequently.