Maybe Garland prioritized by electoral count.
Dems are not losing any House seats in Texas. Itās a wash. The two new seats are one seriously blue seat in Austin and one pretty red seat on the edge of Houston. They did turn one seat in South Texas purple, but I expect Dems will still hold onto it.
If only Sens. Manchin and Sinema would agree with youā¦
Yeah, some of the political analysts like Dave Wasserman think that South Tx seat will be a good pickup opportunity for the GOP. I donāt think thatās necessarily the case. 538 has the picture a lot rosier for Dems vs 2010. Instead of 8 solid blue seats there are now 12 plus 1 lean D. Instead of 14 solid R + 8 lean R, itās 22 solid R and 1 lean R, which is a slight net gain of +1. There is 1 pure toss up (which is that south TX seat). Even based on the GOPās own map, they redrew the districts to further entrench their own numbers without giving themselves much of an opportunity to pick off seats from Dems.
Iām in TX-6 just to the south of you. This district goes all the way back to Joe Barton. Iāve never had D representation.
Why only Texas? Ohio, Wisconsin and North Carolina should be included.
I canāt speak for anything other than Wisconsin, but I noted above that Wisconsin is 86-87% white. There are no racial distinctions here on which to make a litigation of mapping based on race. Most of our POC are in Madison and Milwaukee, as it is, and those districts are drawn for D. This is true for Federal as well as State level gerrymandering.
Our problem here is that D registration is 42% and R is 42% but the Federal districting (8 available) are 4 strongly red, 2 leaning red and 2 blue. Thatās the problem. It should be four and four.
ETA: This is the current congressional representation for WI
Wisconsin Senators, Representatives, and Congressional District Maps - GovTrack.us
5 R; 3 D.
@sniffit may have mentioned this earlier but Heads Up!
We need a plan for this coming eventualityā¦
Yes, that was the overriding goal of the new House map. They learned the lesson from the 2011 map that if they overreach on trying to create more R districts, they have to draw narrower majorities that can become vulnerable later in the decade. So this time, it was all about incumbency protection.
Any early handicapping on the 6 SCOTUS seats up this round?
Unfortunately, talking about it just in those terms downplays just how bad WI is:
Did I mentionā¦
Great Strawman comeback there Castor!
straw man ~
/ĖstrĆ“ Ėman/
noun
noun: strawman
an intentionally misrepresented proposition that is set up because it is easier to defeat than an opponentās real argument.
Pretty much what you do, maybe read the definition closely and youāll find that people who offer arguments with links and evidence arenāt doing that just because you say so
Oh, trust me - Iāve seen enough of western Wisconsin to know this. I was referring in my post to the Federal representation, but the State representation is far worse and the R candidates are so deeply entrenched that many run unopposed because no one will challenge them. There are areas of this State that make āDeliveranceā look like Buckingham Palace.
But thatās what this State is. No amount of court-ordered anything is going to change the culture thatās here.
Highly unlikely SCOTUS will be called upon to reverse any order to redraw the maps. The Fifth Circuit will already have killed any such order.
I meant the judicial elections for 2022, but perhaps Iāve misunderstood whatās in play in Texas.
Thatās why I mentionedā¦
And more specifically from El Pluckero over the past few days. But they got like, 46 clicks and stuff.
Robert āBattling Bobā La Follette
University of Wisconsin
Two names in WI I will always remember.