Discussion: Trump's Commerce Pick Says Renegotiating NAFTA Will Be A Priority

“I’ve negotiated with him over the years and he is not a bluffer. So if he says he will do something in a negotiation, not– I’m not talking about a campaign speech, in an actual negotiation, if he says, ‘If you don’t do this, I’ll do that,’ you bet your booty he will do it,” Ross said.

Translation: Don't pay attention to anything he said in the campaign, more likely than not it was hyperbolic bullshit he may or may not intend to follow through on.
9 Likes

It’s a foregone conclusion that Rump walks away from TPP and China is happy to hear it.

If he tries to renegotiate NAFTA, (keeping in mind that the treaty is between Mex. and Canada) you can expect the Dow to plummet and unemployment to go up.

10 Likes

“I’ve negotiated with him over the years and he is not a bluffer. So if he says he will do something in a negotiation, not– I’m not talking about a campaign speech, in an actual negotiation, if he says, ‘If you don’t do this, I’ll do that,’ you bet your booty he will do it,” Ross said.

Besides what stevie points out above so well, assuming Ross is right, the question becomes for whom will he be negotiating? Judging from his cabinet picks, I’d bet my booty it ain’t gonna be for working people.

3 Likes

Would not the Congress have pass a renegotiated NAFTA Agreement? Maybe Mexico and Canada will slap tariffs on our exports too. Drumpf and his minions seem to think the USA operates on a one-way street.

4 Likes

I’m curious what all the proles will think upon walking into Walmart to discover that Trump’s trade policies have jacked up the price on everything they shop for so much they may as well have visited Nordstrom for their shoes and clothing? What the hell do voters think Trump’s promised 35>45% import tariffs on Chinese goods will do to their wallet?

Exports to China: Vital to US economic growth
  Despite the slowdown in its economy, China continues to be an important contributor to US economic growth. In 2015, US goods exports to China totaled $113 billion, down from the previous two years, but still the third-largest US goods export market behind Canada and Mexico, our neighbors and NAFTA partners.
An important new development is the rapid growth in US services exports to China. In 2014, the most recent complete year of available data, US services exports to China totaled $42 billion, making China the United States’ fourth-largest services export market. From 2006 to 2014, US services exports to China increased more than 300 percent. Services exports to the rest of the world increased 91 percent.
Global trade is slowing, but exports of US goods and services to China continue to outpace exports to other major markets. On average, US goods exports to China grew by nearly 9 percent annually over the past 10 years, despite last year’s decline of nearly 6 percent. Of the United States’ top 10 export markets, only the United Kingdom and Germany had positive export growth in 2015, reflecting the slowdown in global trade.

https://www.uschina.org/reports/us-exports/national
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I'd like someone to look into exactly why Trump thinks starting a trade war with China is such a good idea. Definitely not a subject I've seen explored to any great degree. WTF is up with that?
6 Likes

And would someone please tell me why Ross wasn’t asked what is it you want the US to get out of the renegotiated NAFTA? This of course assumes you can even get Canada and Mexico to the table since they have no incentive to renegotiate anything.

6 Likes

So Drumpf thinks he can get a better deal from our two largest export markets? Maybe, but what basis other than his own ego does he have for that?

2 Likes

Takes two to negotiate. Or in this case, three. Canadians and Mexicans may sit down at the table. Getting somewhere in negotiations will be a whole different matter.

3 Likes

So… he’s gonna ruin my country’s economy too? Canada isn’t exactly a weakling - obviously we don’t have enough people to go shot for shot, but if we slap a few tariffs on potash, for example, we can single-handedly cripple your South’s agriculture. Trump is picking trade wars that maybe he can win, but wars that will cause everyone to suffer as a result. Good deals my ass.

1 Like

Implying that there was anything serious about policy discussed during the election other than ET based lurid stories and EMAILS

You will note the looks of astonishment when those things you stated come to pass along with the bills that turn SS and Medicare over Wall Street land on President Trumps desk and are signed.

3 Likes

He thinks the same tactics he probably employed to twist Carrier’s arm into retaining jobs in Indiana will work with everyone. Threats. Blackmail. Bribery. I suppose in the final analysis there’s nothing terribly surprising about that. Threats, blackmail and bribery have been the key lubricants of business and diplomacy for about 3000 years.

4 Likes

The part where you think Trump thinks is where you went wrong. Trump thinks whatever Trump does is tremendous, very, very, very good, no matter how big a clusterfuck it leads to. And when it turns out to have bad consequences for him personally, he just grifts, finds a patsy and dumps the consequences on them.

Not necessarily a model that wouldn’t have some application to governance and foreign trade, but it would require him to care about something besides himself and those he sees as an extension of himself, i.e. his more obsequious kids.

4 Likes

It’s also true that TPP renegotiated NAFTA – Canada and Mexico are partners in TPP.

2 Likes

I’d like someone to look into exactly why Trump thinks starting a trade war with China is such a good idea. Definitely not a subject I’ve seen explored to any great degree. WTF is up with that?

Given the rest of Trump’s character, I’m speculating that “Chinks” is a common vocabulary word with him and he thinks upon China as an economic “yellow peril”. IOW. same racist bullshit as always.

2 Likes

But, but, but the TPP is the concentrated essence of all that is evil and wrong with the world! It would allow foreign countries to impose child labor and toxic waste dumping on America! Millions and millions and millions of jobs would have fled America into countries with whom we already have bilateral agreements that would have already caused that to happen if it made any kind of economic sense! It was a vast sellout to Wall Street Oligarchs Corporatist DLC Neoliberal argle bargles! Merely to contest this common knowledge by reference to the provisions of the treaty and the larger political and economic context is proof that you are a neoliberal corporatist tool who hates the working class and, indeed, you’re why we lost the election and therefore should be abused and ignored!

2 Likes

Truth is, things like the TPP and NAFTA are actually symptoms of the problem not the cause. The job losses began long before NAFTA even began to be negotiated with jobs first moving from the north to the South where, by the late '80’s, they were being moved into Latin America and the South. The greed at the heart of many of the moves has nothing to do with the trade agreements, they just made them far more profitable. At this point, the only way to grow jobs of any kind int he US is to get rid of the tax and regulatory burden on any business meeting a certain threshold, and defining what a small business is with something actually functional like an “intrastate business” would be the threshold rather than a definition so broad that it allows the Koch Brothers to claim to be a small business.

Vermont is one of the most oddball states out there. We aren’t very Corporate friendly, but we are the best state in the union for building up a business. Entrepreneurs actually have an easier time here than Corporations, and that is despite having some pretty difficult regulations to deal with.

But, yeah, no one ever takes these international trade deals as a symptom of the mentality that “greed is good”, and that somehow businesses can continue to grow infinitely. They also don’t look at the flaws in our economic system which have basically turned it into an elaborate ponzi scheme. George H. W. Bush was right all those years ago- Reagan’s economic ideas were little more than smoke and mirrors.

1 Like

That’s the alternate history I want to read; not Lincoln missing a performance of Our American Cousin but what happens when George H.W. Bush sticks with his claim re: Reagan economics.

1 Like

Renegotiating NAFTA Goal #1 - Get Mexico to pay for building the wall.
Renegotiating NAFTA Goal #2 - Get Canada to kick in some beer and back bacon for the workers building the wall.

And that’s it right in a nutshell. What’s the incentive to get them to the table and agree to any deal that favors American workers? The feral trumpers believe that Can. & Mex. need America as a trading partner more than we need them. I’m not an economist but I wouldn’t make that assumption. Clearly, we are their biggest trading partner but by no means are we the ONLY partner they can rely on.

3 Likes