Discussion: Trump Jumps To 21-Point Lead In CNN/ORC Poll

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Discussion for article #244073

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It doesn’t get any more stupid than this.

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Trump: First I go after Rapists, then after Terrorists and as expected, I am climbing. Every few weeks I will have another group, eg The Blacks, Bleeding Humans, Jews etc. culminating with perceived Liberals in jail.

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Curious why doesn’t anyone reporting this poll report on the number for Bush? Doesn’t that seem kind of critical to a once front runner candidate who is now sinking out of the race?

Edit: just looked it up, 3%, below Rand Paul at 4%.

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Bush is polling below the MOE. It is the lulz. I giggle every time I think of all that wasted billionaire money in his super PAC.

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Personally, national polling at this point is entirely meaningless. I am only interested in what is happening in the actual states now. And my interest there is moving away from the polling numbers to the reporting on the actual ground games.

They way I see it playing out is Cruz wins Iowa, Trump comes in 2nd (possibly 3rd), but nowhere near as close as expected.

Trump wins in NH, but not by nearly as large as a margin as expected…both because of a weak ground game, a reliance on supporters who don’t vote, and because of the loss in Iowa. 2nd place is a bit of a mess with Rubio,Christie and Cruz all being right around the same level. If Cruz pulls a head of that bunch…he is in the drivers seat heading to SC. If Christie pulls a head of Rubio (even if he loses to Cruz), Rubio’s campaign goes into panic mode.

A wounded Trump goes into SC with an invigorated Cruz well positioned to upset him again. If he does, the narrative starts to become set…“Cruz is surging”. If Trump holds on, the narrative becomes “Tough horse race, neck and neck”. The Establishment lane will need to consolidate behind one candidate in either SC or NV. If they have multiple people in the race heading into Super Tuesday, they are out of the running and probably out of reach for a brokered convention.

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This Is Excellent News For John McCain!

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I’m happy to report that the Arc of the Universe Absolutely-Bonkers-Versus-Barely-Sane-GOP-Voters Index ™ now stands at all-time record: 2.74:1.

In other words, according to Pollster.com national polling aggregator, 2.74 GOP voters polled are absolutely and certifiably insane (i.e. they support Trump, Cruz, Carson, Huckabee, Paul or Santorum) for every one GOP voter who may be borderline (i.e. they support Rubio, Bush, Chrisie, Fiotina, Kasich or Pataki).

This is a red-letter (red-alert?) day for America! But jinmichigan, I’m afraid it indeed can get stupider, and I have a lot of faith that it will!

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Trump ‘jumps’ to a 21-point lead?

Um, he’s got a 17-point lead in the RCP average, and the previous CNN/ORC poll (never knew Orcs were good pollsters!) had him up by 20.

So being up by 21 is more of a hop or a skip than a jump. Just sayin’.

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Still don’t see how he would overcome in the general election what TPM reported a couple of days ago: 50% of Republican respondents in a poll said they would be embarrassed to have him as the candidate. (or something similar to that)

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Needless to say, Jeb is thrilled with this poll. When he eventually leaves the race, I fully expect Trump to say he took a dump on the Bush. And his numbers will continue to rise.

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In 5 weeks, the Repubs will trudge their way through the snow and spend a day caucusing in Iowa. At that point, we can pay attention to polls.

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Trump falls to just 4-point lead over Cruz in new Quinnipiac poll!

Ah, polls, always another one.

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I don’t understand how such an overt bigot and misogynist could be leading in the GOP polls.
It just doesn’t make sense!

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Trump’s popularity with Republican voters is more of a reflection of the lowbrow mindset within the GOP electorate and less of a testament to his worthiness to serve as POTUS.

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It won’t be long before Trump is having lunch with Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan, afterwards emerging to the assembled press to jointly announce all is right in the GOP and Republican leadership will unite behind the eventual nominee (wink-wink, nudge-nudge, isn’t Donald nattily attired today? Why, he almost looks Presidential!).

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Because if he’s the nominee the vast majority of that 50% will fall in line: they care more about “beatin’ the libruls” than they do about their (extremely malleable) embarrassment quotient. In cases of excruciating embarrassment, they’ll vote for Trump and then deny having done so.

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I may reregister temporarily for this one. I could be an actual fly on the wall and can give y’all a full report from the night it happens. My prediction right now from on the ground in Iowa? Cruz, big.

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Well, if you take a poll of Orcs, what would you expect?

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Trump+Cruz+Carson = 67%

Where’s Jeb! ???