Discussion for article #239469
The attraction of Republicans to Trump is obvious, he is their nasty, mean spirited id. The one I don’t get is Carson. Other than being Republicans token black man I can’t see the allure. Maybe his semi-conscious, mumbling delivery gives them a warm and cozy? Who knows? Carson is this years Cain/Bachmann.
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Trump polled at 25 percent followed by former neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson at 12 percent, Sen. Ted Cruz (TX) at 10 percent and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 9 percent. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker trailed behind the pack at 6 percent.
This is a Fox “News” poll. Fox, the organization who sponsored a debate in which it’s own moderators spent most of their time trying to destroy Trump’s candidacy. With Trump, Carson, and Cruz polling at a combined 47%, that says to me that the Republican base is ready to buck the establishment and go all in on “teh crazy”.
Each poll putting Trump far out ahead of his rivals makes it that much harder for the GOP to offer Trump anything to bow out, and will make it that much easier for Trump to justify a third party run.
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A third-party run by Trump could split the Republican party into two factions and give us an actual third party. The GOP would likely move left as the crazy part of their base was no longer pulling them right. It would be a very interesting dynamic to live through.
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As I’ve said elsewhere on this site, he’s only in the lead because there are so many other candidates. Trump’s rating is probably going to stay at 20-25% later on, when the others start dropping out, and their supporters will probably not go to Trump.
Ah, hahahahaha! Suck it, republi-cons! Welcome President Hillary or President Sanders.
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You make a good point. I think the distortions arise because there are simply too many primary candidates. I think Trump will pick up some support as the tail-enders fall off the wagon. When the field is down to 3 or 4 we may get a clearer picture of Trump’s “real” strength.
Neither Trump nor any of the other 16 or 17 crazies seem to know much about third-party candidacies, so they can talk about it all they want because they’re ignorant and delusional. It’s a complex process costing about $200.- $400.million. It would require Trump leaving the comfort of his office and apartment building, where to date he’s done most of his campaigning and do some work
Carson’s polling is way exaggerated. He is the one the conservatives tell pollsters they will vote for because they feel better saying that.
When they actually enter the privacy of the voting booth, they will not vote for him.
Along the same lines, I actually think the polls are underestimating Trump. I think there will be a significant Republican contingent which will not tell pollsters they are voting for Trump, but actually tick the checkbox by his name in the booth.
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I keep hearing this theory and it doesn’t make much sense to me. First, it assumes that several other candidates will drop out quickly before Trump starts to accumulate a number of states and delegates. Then the theory assumes that Trump won’t pick up support here and there from drop-out candidates’ voters (I think he actually stands to pick up voters from both Perry and Cruz, as well as some anti-establishment types looking to cast a protest vote). Lastly, for the theory to hold water it would also mean that a “Trump winning” narrative wouldn’t emerge in the MSM that would excite voters to switch their vote to the guy that’s winning. Also, because of the size of the field and because of Citizen’s United and the ability of a candidate to subsist on the donations of one or two big money backers, by the time the field narrows down to just a few candidates Trump may well have already amassed enough delegates that it would be hard for another candidate to pick up enough delegates to beat him.
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Trump wouldn’t run 3rd party with the intent of actually winning. I see him doing it in order to further promote himself and punish the GOP.
I used to say that and it is true to a point, but Carson and Cruz being in second and third place makes me do a double take. When they drop out where do you think their votes are likely to go?
It is also shocking that Bush is dropping in the polls. That is not supposed to happen for the establishment candidate who is hanging around waiting for the crazies to burn themselves out. They are supposed to consistently attract the sane vote bidding their time. Bush’s support appears to be softer than first thought.
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I love the fact all the three top Republican party are so pro-establishment. I am sure that Rinse Pubis, John Boehner and Mitch McConnell must be congratulating themselves.
You go, Donald!
I think that John Bush has proven himself sleazy, inept and uninspiring. I think he should seriously consider dropping out and waiting until he can demonstrate that he is more capable and less sleazy than his father and brother. It may be better to wait until a generation of Americans has forgotten that George Bush the Poppy and George Bush the Dumber caused the loss of 50 million American jobs and sent 5000 young Americans to their death on behalf of the oil companies and their Saudi handlers.
John Bush is the wrong candidate for this cycle in much the same way that Mitt Romney was the worst candidate for 2012. The elders in the Republican party should ask the Bush dynasty to stay out the limelight for a while.
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His reasons are complicated but nevertheless threatening to the Rs and if he’s willing out to shell out the money, he’ll know ahead of time what’s going to happen. Makes the theory of him being a Bill Clinton plant even more delicious while still being implausible. Meant to mention that in 1992 Ross Perot shelled out $64 million, and he was a man who seemed to believe in the policies he put out, including opposition to NAFTA and its giant sucking sound.
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I thought the same thing when Trump was low single digit. I thought the same thing when Trump was high single digits. thought the same thing when Trump was low teen. I thought the same thing when Trump was upper teens. I thought the same thing when Trump was low 20s…
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Trump has already stated he is willing to spend $1 billion out of his own pocket. And I doubt he has spent even $1 million so far and is leading the GOP field. Almost all of his efforts to date are “earned media” due to his being outrageous headline catnip for the media.
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You may not be familiar with the old musical Oklahoma but when I think of Jeb I think of Jud and this lyric. I’m glad to see all of them sinking like stones none more than Jeb, Jed, Jud.
Poor Jud is daid, a candle lights his head
He’s lookin oh so pretty and so nice
He looks like he’s asleep
It’s a shame that he won’t keep
But it’s summer and we’re runinng out of ice
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