Scroll down to table 2.
Remington is the culprit in all the aggregators this morning. Its impacting Huffington Post and 538 as wellâŚeven though Silver doesnât give it a grade and merely indicates a strong GOP house effectâŚhe still lists it in his state by state polling.
Poll Tracker has been kind of a mess this entire election cycle, IMO, largely because of including a lot of tracking polls, online polls and new polling methodologies. They carried that horrid LAT tracking poll for way too long, for example.
But thatâs just one. There have been a flurry of no name polls and just down right crappy polls (Emerson) through out this cycle.
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This is from Sam Wang, who has a superb reputation. This came out TO-DAY. He also knows why Nate likes the click-bait game (hint: $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$/ESPN)
[Everyoneâs up in arms over this Comey/email thing. As I suggested would be the case, itâs not affecting the Presidential race in any meaningful way. That cake is baked. However, like any good thriller, thereâs a fake ending â the election next Tuesday. After that comes actual governing.
The odds overwhelmingly favor a Hillary Clinton victory, as you can see]
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the Gary Johnson and Jill Stein people âŚthe Bernie people and get on board.
I think the vast majority of Sanders supporters have long since made their peace with supporting Clinton; certainly Sanders has himself.
The glibertarian loons who support Johnson arenât amenable to persuasion, since their goal is the dismantling of everything going back to the Progressive era under TR. Itâs OK with them, though, since theyâll have plenty of legal pot to let them forget about not having any Social Security, Medicare, safe meat, breathable air, drinkable water, or mobile phones that donât burst into flames.
As for Stein, she and her running mate have already essentially endorsed Trump, so theyâre even less susceptible to logic and sanity than the glibertarians.
As this election has always been, itâs about getting Democrats to the polls in the same numbers that the Obama campaign was able to.
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âŚfollowed by four years of daily reports of obstruction and Congressional investigations. I thought the past 8 years were ugly, but apparently, that was just the preseason.
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Iâve reached the end of my tether and cannot take any more of this. Is it possible for gray hair to get even grayer?
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Oh FFS. 'MurikaâŚproving how poorly fickle and stupid go together since 1776.
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âŚfollowed by four years of daily reports of obstruction and Congressional investigations.
IF the DNC and the Democratic Party and whatever Democratic Presidential administration placed as much importance on getting the Dem base out to the polls for midterms as they do in Presidential years, we wouldnât have this situation in Congress.
Unless and until all these people can figure out a way to prevent fully 40% of the alleged Dem base from disappearing outright each midterm, weâll have gridlock forever.
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Clintonâs lead has been declining since 10/18, and fairly steeply so since 10/25, as the impact of the Access story fades.
Meanwhile, the top article on the site right now is all about the path to the WH that the GOP/Teatrolls are trying to carve through our voting rights.
You want unthinkable? Unthinkable is not merely Trump winning. Unthinkable is Trump winning and it being demonstrably because of what the GOP/Teatrolls have been doing to fuck with voting rightsâŚand, as a result of it working, earning themselves the opportunity to institutionalize their deliberate diminishment of the franchise.
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No clear path? This time last week the same âexpertsâ who are saying that he has no clear path to 270 were saying the Hillary was going to win with near 400 EV because she was going to win in Arizona, Georgia and maybe even Texas.
There are polls out today that have the race within the MOE in Florida, NC, Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Iowa, etc., which means that Hillary could win all those states, Trump could win all those states or, mostly likely, Trump will win some and Hilllary will win some. The winner will be who wins 2/3rds of them.
Well, that and putting some freekin focus on winning states, where all the redistricting decisions get made. Iâm still bitter over having to sit and watch the Dem machine force Coakley on us in MA. Stupid fucks.
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Yeah. There are no undecideds at this point, at least none that would shift the election in any significant way. The people that would vote for Trump because of Comeyâs report, were going to vote that way regardless.
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You mean the same Sam Wang who predicted Democrats would retain the Senate in 2014.
No, not at all. They should use polls with a proven track record - ie, 538, Princetonâs, etc. - and discount ones proven to have a terrible track record. Or at the very least, factor that in.
Youâre right this will have no impact, which is why the Clinton campaign and their supporters in the media have been in a meltdown for the last four days.
The ABC-Washington Post Tracking Poll - that this article is about, and that everyone here is doubting - is rated A+ by 538
Those arenât polls. And Princeton missed in 2014. He predicted Democrats would retain the Senate.
So now youâre clinging onto Wangâs miss on the Senate for 2014, to give you hope that he and all the rest of the aggregators will be wrong on the Presidential? Yet you ignore Rasmussen and all other for being wrong on the Presidential election of 2014. Make of your mind⌠nevermind, you have to have one first.
It will be worse than that. Trump will make good on his promise to lock up Hillary. He will appoint a special prosecutor, he will enlist the aid of the FBI and Congress, and he will stop at nothing to secure her conviction and imprisonment. Guaranteed. They will go after our girl.
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