Nate Silver’s 538 and PEC recognizes the house effect of those polls you named and don’t give them full credibility as you do.
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Go to www.electoral-vote.com I can’t stand this national polling when we don’t even vote that way. WTF? Trump is a very dangerous man due to who he will bring with him. It scares the hell out of me to think he might win.
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Is that why Nate Silver and others still give Clinton no less than 75% of winning? It’s not going to shift all that much.
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BS! 538 adjust virtually every poll to Hillary’s advantage. He adds a 5%, so-called, house effect to the LA Times poll based on ZERO historically reason to do so. He adds 3% to the TIPP poll even though it has only missed a single election by .9% in the last three.
It will be interesting how much he adds to Hillary to change Trump +1 to Hillary. He use to adjust the ABC poll in favor of Trump until the gap went down to even then he started adjusting it to Hillary’s favor.
You don’t know what you are talking about? Hillary was not leading by 12% prior to the FBI story. She was leading by 2%.
Because it is based on polling data. If the state polls in key states starts to reflect National Trends that will start to shrink. There was a time a couple weeks ago 538 had Hillary at 90%. The trends are in Trump’s favor. That doesn’t mean he will get there. He still needs to flip a few key states.
Stay tuned for Albesure’s panicked email of the day–
What. the. fuck? President Trump. this fucking dumb, idiotic, country is going to elect this piece of shit. This is ridiculous. We’re ridiculous. James Comey is a piece of shit too. Fuck him. I hope you’re reading this FBI. Your boss is a piece of shit, sell out–like all republicans. And if the FBI people who are reading this are Republicans, and you voted for Trump–fuck you too!
We’re going to have our first orange POTUS, everyone.
Piece of shit.
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“In the previous ABC-Post poll, released October 24, Clinton held a 12-point lead over Trump…”
From the article man…
You’re really working hard to prove Marine is a acronym. But, you’re right…
It was. 13 point shift in a week not 12. Thanks for pointing that out.
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If James Comey’s actions lead to the election of Donald Trump, he will immediately become one of the most reviled people in the entire span of American history.
I think TPM’s poll tracker is pretty lame, inasmuch as its default state uses “data” from such esteemed polling outfits as Rasmussen, Emerson, Gravis, and that idiotic USC/LA Times thing.
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On the bottom shelf, next to the Abilify and Celexa.
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But that was when this poll was first released. Trump was closing ground everyday since the 24th. He closed it to a 1-2% Clinton lead prior to this story coming out. Furthermore, tracking polls are dealing with multiple days of data. There are two days of data included in the sample that were prior to the FBI story. It won’t be until Thursday that all data will be post announcement.
So they should only use data from polls that have results you like? Nobody will know which polls are accurate until Nov 9th.
Vote. Get out the vote. Vote for Hillary, Democratic Senate and House candidates, and all other state and down ballot candidates. Get your family, friends, neighbors to the polls. If we vote, we win. The stakes are too high to let this one slip by because of apathy or false equivalence. Trump is an ignorant goon and a buffoon, and if Republicans retain the House and Senate it will be nothing but obstruction and investigations all over again. Vote, dammit. If those you talk to have any remaining questions, perhaps this will help:
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I trust Sam Wang, the most straightforward of the poll aggregators and the one who takes the most obvious approach—namely to rely only on the state polls.(In fact, all the poll aggregators are within a few percentage points of one another, with the exception of 538 which clearly made a decision to make its model more variable and Trump-friendly (for clicks).) Wang pegs Hillary’s chances at 99% and has for a while. Who cares about a single tracking poll which wildly fluctuates? Hillary will win. What hangs in the balance is control of the senate.
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That would still be odd… it doesn’t matter if the shift happened on Thursday or Sunday… a shift of 13 points in less than a week is a dramatic shift however you try to paint it, and raises questions about the validity of this sample.
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No we’re not…
But the Voter Suppression Project is underway. Just like the armed forces, there are segments (Navy, Army, etc.)
(1) You have the Fourth Estate
(2) You have certain click-bait pollsters
(3) You have the GOP
All of these folks would like nothing better than for Democrats to throw up their hands…then start hand-wringing, then curl up and die.
(1) The Fourth Estate can hype Hillary’s troubles and ignore the psycho he is running against
(2) Nate Silver is the only pollster which has Hillary going down at an average of 3.5% per DAY. At that rate, the race will be 50-50 by next Monday. On the other hand, Sam Wang (the most accurate pollster we have actually has Hillary’s meta-margin (an extremely important metric) at 3.6, which is HIGHER than the 3.5 he had last night. By the way, a meta-margin of 2.5 is EXTREMELY good for Hillary and what Saw has now is 1.1 ABOVE THAT
(3) And I am not going to waste ink describing the thuggish GOP
If people want to curl up and die that’s their right. But the Americans should have known (even as the Press catered to him for 14 months) that this blight on the country would do any and everything he could to triumph.
We have one shot at this thing…and if people would like to do something besides wail, maybe they should start with the Gary Johnson and Jill Stein people …the Bernie people and get on board.
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Just like he “adjusted” for Obama in both elections? And guess what. Obama won BOTH TIMES. Based on zero evidence? He has plenty of evidence: their polling methodology, their “outlier” status where improbable against all other polls, that poll always has Trump ahead. Even with the Trump video when his numbers really took a dive, that poll STILL had Trump ahead.
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Yeah. Not credible.
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From the poll results by Langer Associates:
“…the tracking poll shows Clinton going from 95 percent support among liberal Democrats early in the tracking poll to 88 percent now.”
The notion that the email thing could account for that is bunk, since liberal Democrats overwhelmingly believe the whole thing is a nothingburger anyhow. So what else would account for a 7% drop in supposed liberal Democrats support for Clinton? She has not backtracked on any policy issue that liberals care about to my knowledge.
I going to go with “they don’t ask to see your ‘Liberal Democrat’ card over the phone… or at all”.