Discussion: The Trump-Cruz Louisiana Delegate Fight Could Be First Sign Of Turmoil To Come

Drumpf is being pulled deeper and deeper into the shit. He will do his best to fuck things up. Count on it. He is in that place the republican’ts know so well – Break it and complain. Tiresome and embarrassing, but go for it. They built it.

There was some delegate irony in Illinois when two of Trump’s delegates in my county didn’t get elected because they had foreign-sounding names. One had been a longtime Republican and former Dept. of Transportation head for the county. But Trump’s supporters were either so new to voting, prejudiced, or didn’t know a thing about local politics (likely all 3), that they helped Trump lose 2 delegates from Illinois, and Kasich & Cruz each picked up one. With that lack of awareness going on in the Trump campaign, the fight for delegates will continue in chaos and anything can happen. Who will Trump blame? Anyone but himself.

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Never call Drumpf a crybaby lest he cry like a baby.

Why is there no reporting in the mainstream media on the C-Section Born Cruz Hooker Scandal? The National Enquirer report has been vindicated by many other news outlets. There is evidence of activity on Ashley Madison from a email address linked to directly to Ted Cruz’s Senate office. I think it is increasingly likely that Ted Cruz might also be implicated as a client of hookers from Deborah Palfrey, the DC Madam’s brothel.

Two points

“Barry Bennett, Trump’s delegate advisor, then suggested that the campaign would seek to de-certify Louisiana’s delegates.”

“Cruz loyalists were also able to secure five of the Louisiana’s six slots on the all-important convention committees that will be in charge of the rules and credentialing at the Cleveland convention.”

If the delegate totals are at all close, these two points illustrate the dynamic that will come into play and decide the convention in procedural votes long before the first ballot to select a nominee. And the most predictable bone of procedural contention will be the seating of delegates.

You have to think backwards from what we all pay attention to in years when we don’t have a brokered convention, the delegate count, as one candidate approaches the majority. That’s the only number we pay attention to because if that count isn’t close, then no one cares about the procedural issues involved in seating, and those issues don’t get contested because the convention is a coronation, several hours of free media in which the only job of all the participants is to sing kumbaya and hold hands with everyone else in the party.

But if it’s close, it will matter very much who gets seated. The nominee will be decided before the first ballot, on the series of votes taken to decide which delegates get seated. Only delegates already seated, ones whose seating wasn’t challenged, get to participate in these votes, so the number to watch isn’t the number of delegate won, but the number of unchallenged delegates. Only unchallenged delegates get to vote in the series of votes that decides on the nominee, the seating votes.

So you have to think even one step ahead of that series of votes by unchallenged delegates on who gets seated. You have to control the vote that decides which delegates are challenged and have to be seated only after a vote of the unchallenged delegates, versus which delegates are unchallenged and get to participate in that series of votes that actually decides the nominee. That vote that controls this status of challenged versus unchallenged is the vote cast by that “all-important” convention committee that will be in charge of credentialing. All-important is the exact right thing to call that committee, because the nominee, in a close, brokered, convention is going to be decided by which delegates this committee decides don’t merit a challenge, versus those that do.

The campaigns have obviously already figured this out, to judge by this article. And if they’ve figured this out and are behaving and speaking as described in this article, unless the primaries and caucuses from here on do hand Cruz or Trump a big lead, one too wide to overcome by seating challenges, then the convention will end up dividing. Neither Trump nor Cruz is going to accept being done out of the nomination on a procedural vote of the convention, as opposed to losing because the other candidate got more delegates in primaries and caucuses. The loser will claim that the nominal winner only won by cheating, breaking the party rules to steal delegates on bogus seating challenges decided his way only because he broke the rules to get more seats on that credentialing committee.

That’s what happened in 1912, the Bull Moose faction claimed the Old Guard had done TR out of the nomination with seating chicanery. But what happened next in 1912, the Bull Moose faction getting its own line on state ballots, won’t happen in 2016. You can’t get a new party ballot line by convention time in 2016. Both the Trump and the Cruz faction will be forced to claim the existing R ballot line. Some state Secys of State will give it to one faction, and others to the other faction. They all get sued by the faction they stiffed. Then the courts step in, but a unitary nationwide decision on which faction is the one true Republican Party is stymied by the 4-4 split in SCOTUS.

We’re basically doomed. Make sure your passports are up to date. Book your flights well in advance of their convention.

"It’s the first bit of concrete evidence that we’ve got that the Cruz campaign is organized …” said Josh Putnam, a lecturer at the University of Georgia who tracks delegate rules at the blog FrontloadingHQ.

Organized, like crime.

I’m looking forward to the general election in the wake of a contested convention: “Ted Cruz. His own party didn’t want him, why would the rest of us?”