Discussion for article #225693
Every time the RWNJ base demands pharmaceutical-grade purity in yet another ideology column:
• anti-choice
• anti-tax
• pro-gun fetish
• anti-ACA
• Benghazi!!!
• anti-Common Core
• anti-immigrant
• pro-carbon dioxide emissions
• anti-environment
• anti-vagina
• anti-melanin
• pro-Israel
• pro-isolationist
they diminish the size of the base, the size of the pool of their potential candidates, and the likelihood of cross-party appeal.
Morons.
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There is yet another potentially significant factor that will tilt the playing field Democratic starting in 2016: the likely beige-ness of the Presidential candidates for at least several cycles. Not having an African-American at the top of the ticket unravels a host of motivating factors, conscious or not, for the Republican base.
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Yes, the GOTP went through a “show-trial” of licking its wounds in 2012, but I don’t think anyone–outside of the beltway media–took it seriously.
Bottom line: If you are told by the corporate media that Democrats are liberal, foreign, communist traitors who hate America, and that message plays into your racist fears, you are going to be highly motivated to vote. And during low turnout elections (e.g., the midterms), you are very likely to win.
“…the worst are full of passionate intensity, while the best lack all conviction” Yeats.
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Bbbbbbut, BENGHAZI!!! BENGHAZI!!! BENGHAZI!!!
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I would argue that because the GOP failed to pass immigration reform, Hillary will be even stronger with the electorate in 2016 than Obama was in 2008 which was pretty strong because she will not only capture the African-American, Latino, and Asian vote margins that Obama got but she will do even better with whites than Obama did in 2008.
I could see Hillary getting 350+ electoral votes easily including winning in states like Kentucky, West Virginia, etc that her husband won as well as emerging battleground states such as Georgia and North Carolina.
It will be a Democratic WAVE in 2016. The base will energized.
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Is this a wave election? The generic Congressional polls have shown what a wave election looks like in a mid-term election:
The 2006 Democratic wave election:
The 2010 Republican wave election:
Here is the current generic Congressional polling data three months out:
This is a status quo election.
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Ed, I am not so sure 2014 is going to be as good for Republicans as you are. I know and appreciate all of the markers you and the beltway fonts of wisdom cite and you might be right, but based on what we have been seeing during the primary season, Republican base enthusiasm is pretty low. Changes in information technology have reduced the effectiveness of television ads. This could prove to be a drag-um to the booth campaign. In a lot of states that could be to the Democrats advantage. Of course, the Democrats are going to have get off of their fainting couches and work the polls. Easier said than done if your professionals have totally bought into the conventional wisdom. Either way nobody is going to walk away from this election feeling they have the wind at their backs.
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Whenever polling operations ignore the Black vote they end up embarrassing themselves. Republicans gave up on Blacks voting for them for the last thirty years. OK except in Mississippi recently and look they’re losing their minds over it.
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This is all probably true; 2016 will likely be a good year for Democrats. But still I can’t deny that I’m sick at the prospect of the Republicans taking over the Senate in November.
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superior Republican “base enthusiasm” could put a thumb on the scales in their favor.
Usually vote suppression and gerrymandering is the morbidly obese thumb on the scale for Republicans.
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Whenever Reince pops up out of his ferret hole it’s a sign for Republicans to “believe the hype”.
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I do think the Repubs are taking it seriously, it’s just that they have lost control of the message.
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Republicans can blithely take two completely different sides of any issue and seem perfectly at ease with it. Their base and the media never seem to question them on it. One example:
“As president, I will create 12 million new jobs.” —Mitt Romney, second presidential debate
Government does not create jobs.” — 45 minutes later (Oct. 16, 2012)
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I wouldn’t count her chickens before they hatch.
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I’m with you
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If left - wing pundits were boxing managers their fighters would never have to worry about being injured in the ring because they would throw in the towel before the bell for the first round.
How about we actually lose the election before we concede defeat?
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“…Republicans could well hold or conceivably even improve their bloated margins among governors and state legislative chambers.” Repubs are gonna lose governorships. Professionals have bought into the cw.
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Exactly right. Republicans would be cleaning up the floor with Democrats if they were a normal party, which they are far from. Vulnerable Senate Democratic incumbents have been leading, or statistically tied, in their respective races for awhile now. Also, Democratic gubernatorial challengers have been surprisingly leading, or keeping it close, in many red states. These are not the markers of a wave election.
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What superior base enthusiasm? Look at the primaries. The Republican battle between the tea party and the traditional Republicans has been the focus of primary elections this cycle around the country, lots of coverage, and turnout is at an all time low. I don’t think that many Republicans are all that enthusiastic.
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