Discussion for article #226054
Seth needs to know more about this. It is not as close or as desperate as he suggests. In fact, what just happened in Montana with Walsh might just lock the Senate for the Dems. Panic like this isn’t helpful.
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“Some suggest that control of both houses of Congress will make Republican act more responsibly, with fewer scorched-earth tactics and forced standoffs, and more reining-in of the wild right wing. When you look around, you have to wonder where in the world the evidence for this theory comes from”
That’s easy. It comes from Chuck Todd’s wet dreams.
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If you look at the last decade or so voters don’t keep GOP majorities and control of the White House around very long. The total control of D.C. by the Republicans lasted about four years, from 2002-2006, and then the Dems seized control of both Houses of Congress. If there is a GOP takeover of the Senate the GOP nominee will be a person like Paul or Cruz and he will lose to the Dem nominee, who will probably also lead the Dems in taking back the Senate.
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As bad as the news is in this story, this line made me laugh:
Dan Balz’ take on the GOP Senate chances names states like New Hampshire and Virginia as within the Republican grasp, but the only the way those wind up in the mix is a shake-up on the level of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen cooking and eating Sen. Mark Warner live on C-SPAN
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It is possible given the map, but if they have a majority it will be a bare one. Unless they totally obliterate the filibuster it will not matter much. Even if they do, the president will just have to veto more often.
The curious bit is would their be enough GOP members to impeach and remove the president after that sort of thing. Because they would want to.
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Obama should be able to block the most extreme abuses. Meanwhile, the nihilistic and deeply unpopular Republican agenda will be on full display.
The GOP needs to destroy itself before the country can truly move forward.
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Has Walsh dropped out and Schweitzer stepped up?
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Not to worry. Ed Kilgore assures me that the Republican party is withering on the vine/rotting on the ground.
It’s “all-too-likely” but he wouldn’t bet against it or bet much on it. It’s “all-too-likely” but yet the races in the solid South are “close” and “competitive”. Seth so desperately does not want to be wrong.
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Unfortunately, it ALL will come down to one thing and one thing only: TURNOUT.
In 2014, the turnout in the 18-34 group (the key to Democratic Victories in the last 12 years) is going to be MISERABLE, much worse than usual. Why? as a group, they just don’t care about politics. Presidential Elections penetrate the fog of work, school, parties, social media, and MSM-provided entertainment solely because the Presidential Elections have been covered by the MSM as REALITY TV SHOWS anyway. Not much else does.
There are no pressing issues to get them to turnout and vote this year. They don’t care about who gets nominated to the SCOTUS, what bills are before Congress, where money is appropriated, etc. They need a CAUSE to get behind and there isn’t one in a mid-term this time out.
Before you get up on your high-horse to explain to me why I’m wrong because YOU will be voting, remember: YOU don’t represent the majority of the 18-34 age group (if you did you would not be on this site you would be over on Vine or Pintrest or Facebook or Twitter obsessing about who is “following” you.)
Face it. The Reich-Wing has more RELIABLE voters and they will be pushing their God, Guns, and Gays buttons (with a fair amount of RACE BAITING thrown in for good measure) with glee.
Fear, Hatred, and Bigotry WORK in these types of elections. All we have are TRUTH and COMPASSION and they don’t rile people up enough to get their asses off the couch.
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Removal of the POTUS in the Senate impeachment trial requires a super majority of 67 votes. The Rethugs would only have 55 or so even if the November vote is a disaster for the Dems.
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Well as cazcee says the Repubs will not be able to impeach in the Senate even in the worst case scenario in November. But they will be able pass (horrible) legislation and their reaction to Obama’s subsequent vetoes will be fun to watch. Oh how utterly “lawless” the president will be then, how unprecedented his actions!
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The Republicans are not going to take control of the Senate. And, it appears they will loose control of Congress. The RP has angered way too many voting blocks for these groups to stay home.
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Well, I have two sons in that age group and they care very much about politics but like their fellow college graduates w/o jobs or with shit jobs and a ton of education debt, they had a “CAUSE” to get behind but that cause has dissipated and now they realize what we have in America is a two-headed Corporate Party keeping them from realizing a full life. The deck is stacked and the status quo has once again prevailed. Opportunity for real “change” came and went by the summer of 2009.
More defeatism from the supposed Good Guys.
How about a story called “What Happens When Dems Win The House Back And Keep The Senate?”
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You know what is all too likely? A slew of these type of articles at TPM before election day.
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Huh. From the headline, I thought for sure it’d be a Kapur.
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Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. It just sounds nice.
This is not a news story. This is someone pushing the Beltway meme that republicans are bound for a permanent majority. And its utter horseshit.
Simply look at the actual polls and what is happening on the ground in the battle ground states this year. Republicans need 6 seats. They have a lead in the three states we basically spotted them, MT, WV and SD. That has always been the case for those states.
Everywhere else they are behind. They are down in AK, AR, NC, LA, CO, MI, NH and IA. And even more telling, the two seats they are defending…they are also behind, GA and KY.
I only wish this idiots that write this dribble could spend a few hours poring over the actual polls. And studying the actual campaigns.
Oh, and I wish they would learn something else, too. To be exceptional, you have to break away from the pack…printing the same, tired, made up story is not the way to become a rising star. Break away and report on what is actually happening for a damn change.
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