Empirically speaking, it seems unlikely that Clinton would be leading by double digits across a number of March primary states with large populations and delegates and be losing to Sanders nationally. I don’t think it is mathematically possible for him to be within 15 points of her given the polls we’re seeing out of places like South Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Michigan etc.
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Yes, odd isn’t it?
A post by @Hemingway13 Discussion: Ted Cruz Pulls Ahead Of Trump In New National Poll comes to mind
Go Bernie, Go. Woo Yoo!
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Former First Lady, former U.S. senator, former Secretary of State: clearly unelectable.
And that’s just from liberals.
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To the question “Who do you think will be President in 2016?” the largest percentage (not a majority, though) went to Hillary Clinton. Or am I reading this incorrectly? This is the strangest list of questions I have ever seen in similar election polls.
Bernie Sanders / Donald Trump Feb 16 53% 38%
Hillary Clinton / Donald Trump Feb 16 47% 42%
I know there are a lot of people deeply scared about Sanders, and a lot of people just love Hillary and that’s it. But couching this in terms of electability seems like a mistake. Objectively, it seems like he’s not doing all that badly. And every time Josh eloquently disposes of him in a blog, he seems to jump 10 points. When people see him up close, they really like him. I don’t see he has more baggage than she does, just different baggage. I mean vote for who you want, but don’t piss on my leg and tell me it’s raining.
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{It’s satire}
Frankly, I am quite unhappy about the quality of this site’s poll reporting overall (whether D or R, whoever has “slight lead”).
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I really like Sanders… I really like Clinton. And Maybe I like what Sanders says more then Clinton. but I think Clinton is better to run against and beat a Republican. In my heart I want to "storm the “Bastille!”
Then, maybe I’m wrong! SOB!
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Yesterday Nate Silvers offered this analysis: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanderss-path-to-the-nomination/
I believe serious analysis regarding Sanders’ chances hasn’t happened before at Five Thirty Eight.
Winds of change? Who can say. But the tightening of the race in Nevada is seemingly having an effect.
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Ok… Sooooo
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Where did you read that?
I’d like a little more info before I consider something a “study” with a “reasonably controlled experimental design,” as opposed to say, a push-poll, designed to create the effect it “finds.”
The other question, of course, is how Hillary fares under the same treatment. In other words, if we’re going to look at how Bernie’s support holds up in the face of x number of the most likely Republican attacks on him (with no rebuttal) then shouldn’t we also want to know how Hillary’s support holds up in the face of x number of the most likely Republican attacks on her (with no rebuttal)? I think that kind of polling – done by a nonpartisan pollster with some credibility and with their methodology and questions made public – could be pretty helpful to a lot of Democrats. But third and fourth-hand accounts of “studies” done by unnamed parties, with no actual numbers shared, but instead summarized in scary prose – not so helpful to voters, but potentially helpful to one of the candidates…which could be a coincidence…or not.
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See I think they’ve already revealed they’re panicking. Remember it wasn’t that long ago that Nevada was supposed to be half of Clinton’s early primary firewall with South Carolina. She had a 22 point lead there in December. Not only that, but it was supposed to be where the POC would come out in a show of loyalty to her.
In 2008, there was 65% Latino participation in the contested caucuses in Nevada.
The fact that she tried so hard to tamp down expectations by coming out saying now that it’s no different in racial demographics than New Hampshire and Iowa means she’s panicking. It reveals their internal polling has not been good in Nevada.
Bernie winning in Nevada will most definitely put her on the ropes because expectations have fallen so far in a matter of weeks.
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What a load of crap - no matter how big you make your headline and font on this story, it’s a load of crap.
I have NEVER seen a Fox poll that put HIllary in the lead of anyone. even months ago, they had her behind… ALWAYS.
Bernie is unelectable and unqualified. He’s a old… OLD 1 talking point socialist who is NOT a Democrat.
He is the most unelectable of the enitire group from both sides.
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That’s indeed what I said (want to see the data, want to know how they were conducted). And the experimental design part is qualified with “if that is the case.”
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It’s friggin’ FOX fer crisssst’s sake ! —
They’re just trying to get ya to take your eye off the ball —
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Great. With the nuttiest and least electable GOP field in a generation, the Dems are thinking of throwing away the White House and the Supreme Court for a generation with a dyspeptic, elderly, Jewish Atheist, who is promising to raise taxes, and who is counting on a revolution by those who don’t yet pay their own bills…Way to go, Dems!
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Well, not to defend Fox (as this might cause my head to explode) but I will just defend reality by pointing out that you are just wrong. Go look at the list of national polls. Fox had Hillary up by 12 points in late January, 15 points in early January, 22 points in December, 23 points in November, 25 before that, and on and on.
This poll may well be at least somewhat of an outlier. But with CBS putting the gap at 8 points, and Quinnipiac finding a gap of only 2 points, and most of the other polls down from 20 and 30 point leads, to leads in the teens, it’s pretty clear that there is real movement in Bernie’s direction. Of course that only counts if that movement shows up in the states where and when he needs it. It looks like it might in Nevada, but probably won’t (at least not enough to win) in South Carolina.
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She’s not. Check the dates on those double digit leads on those states. Those polls are dated.
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The only thing that matters right now (in my not so valuable opinion) is if Sanders somehow gets within single digits in SC, then yeah, maybe Clinton should be concerned.
I just don’t see that happening. After SC, it is a hard road for Bernie.
Of course, looking above me, the fact that the term “Jewish Atheist” popped up in the comments makes me think that some Clinton supporters might be panicking…
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