Harris is the best politician among the Dems running. Her personality, retail skills, toughness, warmth, and intellect are the best combo that I’ve seen. Her campaign is well organized and her messaging is tight. She is ideally situated to maximize the Dems share of the minority and female vote while generating record volume. She is situated in the center of the Dems’ ideological circle which means there is no group that is closed off to her. Her background as a prosecutor hits the sweet spot for Dems seeking justice and a desire to end the corruption of the Trump era.
Agreed, she is the total package. She will do well where the party is growing … CO, NV, AZ, NC, GA.
However, she doesn’t have obvious draw on the surprise areas Trump won on 2016 like WI, PA, MI. I’m sure she’d be competitive but not a lock.
I think if she picks Sherrod Brown as VP, these three are a lock. I can’t think of someone else that virtually guarantees these three states.
I think she’s going to do a lot better in IA than people think. If you look at the recent judicial election and governor’s election in WI, the difference maker for Dems was POC participation. You need Milwaukee big time. Dems made improvements across the state but couldn’t win the Judicial race b/c Milwaukee didn’t turn out. They clipped Walker because Milwaukee turned out. Harris is better situated to win WI in a high turnout environment.
In Michigan, though we won in a romp in 2018, getting Detroit to turn out big wards off any GOP surge. Harris does that. Similarly, in PA, Harris turns out Philly/Pittsburgh. In FL, Harris (or Beto for that matter) would be our first candidate from a state that has a sizable latino population, and a state whose politics are shaped by the political views of Latino voters. That ability to speak to a key swing constituency provides the best matchup for a Dem against Trump, who will have the I-4 exurbs in his favor.
But more than that, Harris’ big advantage is among suburban, college educated voters. She has a lot of support among suburban women. Combine that with high POC votes and you win all the battlegrounds.
I’d add that PA, WI & MI all have democratic governors this time as well, which helps.
I think she will do well as you mention.
I just fear when Republicans are within cheating distance.
Brown, I think adds cushion.
I doesn’t have to be Brown, but a strong pro-union midwestern white Male is the balance (geographically, in gender, race etc) that rounds the ticket.
We need a lock, my opinion is Brown is the strongest choice.
Comprehensive article, Mr. Joseph. I hope you had fun writing it.
Although I imagine this part:
Maya was on the steering committee fighting the ballot proposition. The group raised huge sums and polled extensively, finding white voters weren’t moved by moral appeals — they needed skin in the game. […] “We found a message that if you don’t collect this data, the children of white people will be hurt by this. And white people swung our way.”
Must not have been fun to write at all – and perhaps not fun for Ms. Harris to come to terms with, either.
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I’m not in full-on wonk mode just yet; I’m still thinking about what I just read.
But I do want to say that I’m very glad to have had the chance to read what I just read. Reporting like this takes time and money, and I’m proud that my little ol’ TPM Prime membership helped to pay for it.
Kudos!
Harris-Brown has been my preferred ticket, but I don’t think Dems will feel that they can afford to lose the Senate seat. I think establishment Dems will probably encourage Harris, if she is the nominee, to choose one of the other candidates.
100% with you.
I hope Harris thanks the establishment for sharing their opinion, then picks who she wants, regardless of their opinion. Be it Brown or someone else.
I understand the concern about the Senate seat. I’m sympathetic to the argument. But for me the Presidency is paramount. RBG can’t live forever, we can take no chances.
Harris press release?
I think both women are impressive and I’ve had a chance to see them and some of those quoted fairly close up. But I looked at the women’s empowerment website touted in the article and couldn’t find much there about actual projects, except getting a wonderful ad signed by men supporting Christine Blaisley. There also are T-shirts to buy with empowerment slogans. Moreover, the idea that an article in 2001 was the first to draw a link between increasing rates of incarceration of minority men and distrust between minority communities and the police seemed a little naive. In vlaw school, and when I started practice as a defense lawyer in 1972, I already was reading about lots of planners and politicians and minority and police spokespersons who knew it too. The increasing political benefit harvested from being “hard on crime,” however, made that less and less relevant to politicians.
In other words, the article had lots of valuable information but I thought it read too much like a puff piece. Or even an advocacy piece. There are lots of candidates out there. Too many, in fact. I’d hate to feel TPM is already pulling for one candidate without more analysis of the field and more development of policy papers. I’ll certainly vote for Kamala if she’s the nominee, and I may even campaign for her pre-primary if I’m convinced. But please don’t rush it this way.
You’re being kind.
“but If the Democratic Party and the nation are at a demographic and political tipping point, the Harris sisters may be the ones to push them over the edge.”
Yes, over the edge, all right! Four more years of Trump, guaranteed.
Yes.
'Twas always thus, but it’s really, really frustrating that simple, straight-up “It’s the right thing to do” arguments tend not to resonate with many whites. They have to be turned into some sort of zero-sum game that demonstrates to them that they at least won’t lose if/when women and people of color derive more benefit from some leveling of the socioeconomic playing field.
Bernie doesn’t have one for you yet?
Why are you so sure?
So Brown is her token white guy?
“It’s the right thing to do” doesn’t resonate with many nonwhites as well, apparently.
The article read a little like a puff piece, but it told me things I didn’t know about her sister. So that’s good.
I think the “attacks from the left” on being a prosecutor will be compensated by the appeal of a prosecutor to voters overall, if she can make it through the primary. Republicans can’t use their traditional “Dems are soft on crime” line on her. And I think she would wipe the floor with Trump in the debates.
The only reservations I have so far, are that she’s too tight with AIPAC, and I’m disappointed that she got on Bernie’s M4A bandwagon. Although she might be framing that as an end-goal and not an immediate one (I hope).
You trying to tell me a wealthy, highly educated, successful woman of Jamacian and Indian descent won’t be able to connect with inner city blacks? Or even the rural poor for that matter?
Next you’re going to tell us that the Trump campaign will try exploit her weaknesses if she’s our candidate.
This is what she will be dealing with:
If I’m not mistaken, Justin Babar was convicted of armed robbery. Clinton’s policies had nothing to with his incarceration for twenty years. But a popular Netflix documentary in the black community by Ava Duvernay released a month before the election convinced him otherwise. What are the chances that Trump will target those people with a different message about a different candidate?