Discussion for article #245688
So Sanders drops 7 points in a week, Clinton rises 10 points. But the headline is Sanders crushing Clinton … Okay …
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In shocking news, Bernie Sanders predicted to win home-court primary that everyone knew he was going to win since the start.
BREAKING!
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Yeah, guess they are going to ignore the globe poll that had sanders up 7. If this was the other way, headline would be Sanders surging. Think I am going to bail on TPM for a while
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They just gotta have their horse race …
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Ahhhhh…the HorseRace…
That’s why I do not watch novelas on Spanish language television…always uncertainty with no resolution…
Also the fact that the Latino characters on the screen look more like Germans than the people watching them at home.
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I know all the supposed advantages of having 2 small rural states start the primary race, but I’m increasingly convinced their time has passed. If we allow 2 totally unrepresentative states to cause the Dems to choose a weak general election candidate there is something seriously wrong. I still think HRC will win, but a victory in NH will propel Sen. Sanders’ campaign far past its natural life.
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I know, whole campaigns close up shop and drop out because two small, very, very, extremely unrepresentative states vote for the campaign that best serves them tea and cookies in the afternoon. It’s crazy and behind the times.
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If Hillary can stay within single digits, it will be a victory for her.
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So, if Hillary comes within 10 or 12 points of Bernie, she will have exceeded expectations. She’s likely to do that.
The significant question is whether a victory by Bernie translates in Nevada, South Carolina and other states. If he gets hammered there, then winning New Hampshire will mean very little.
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I take all the polls with several pounds of salt, but pretty amazing to compare a year ago’s numbers!
Maybe Hillary should have launched her 2016 campaign in 2009? Trust me, everyone in NH knows who these two are, or probably more know who Hillary is. There is no particular reason for NH voters to be in love with Bernie because he’s a neighbor. He’s not been a regional figure like a Kennedy or even Elizabeth Warren. It’s possible, just possible, that the preference is about policies and politics.
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I hope Bernie’s got a good team down in S.C.
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In another tracking poll, Bernie is up by 10 points.
He’ll win New Hampshire, of course—but Hillary will far exceed expectations, and she will crush Bernie in South Carolina, Nevada (where his campaign’s impersonation of union members is not appreciated) and in the Super Tuesday states.
Then it will be all over but the shouting.
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Politics is local. Bernie’s politics his entire life have been shaped by his surroundings and sold to his constituents. No, people generally don’t vote for a guy just because he is from their state or a neighboring state (although there is a boost of such, especially in persecution-complex or heavily cloistered groups as we saw with Romney), but they will absolutely vote for someone who shares their regional views and perspective more than the next guy.
Bernie’s politics play better in New Hampshire than they do in New York or South Carolina, not because he is “from” New England, but because his politics are from there.
This is a well known and completely proven tendency in politics. Trying to reason your way out of it is not going to lead anywhere good.
Its worth noting that Bernie is outspending Hillary 3:1 in advertising in NH. That’s not a good sign for a state that he has supposedly had in the bag since he started his campaign.
It also removes the charade that Sanders was trying to push, that he wasn’t worried about expectations. He is extremely worried about expectations, and rightly so. If Hillary hits your range, or gets within single digits, Bernie has a problem.
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Did they change the headline? The one I’m seeing says “Sanders Maintains Strong Lead…” 16 points in this poll, and 13 points in the RCP average of all the recent polls doesn’t count as a “strong lead?”
Yes, Hillary seems to have made some progress (although that assumes some of the polls a week or two ago showing larger leads for Bernie were accurate, which we don’t know for sure…the average has barely moved). But however you slice it, this is still a “strong lead” to have two days out from the election.
By the way, if you’re a Hillary supporter, there’s a silver lining to high NH polling numbers for Bernie at this point, especially if you think those polls are understating her support and/or momentum – the higher the expected margin, the easier it is for Hillary to “beat expectations,” and thus try to “win the narrative” even if she loses the primary by a sizeable margin.
And narrative is really all this NH contest is about. It sure ain’t about the tiny number of delegates at stake.
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While there is no particular rational reason that the cut-off between a single-digit margin and a double-digit margin should be particularly meaningful, I think that’s more or less how it will play out in the press. If Hillary can come within single digits, it will be portrayed as a big “win” for her.* If the gap is 12 points, but the final polling averages said 15, the Clinton campaign will still play up the “beating expectations” angle, but probably with considerably less success.
(*It will be pretty funny if the final margin ends up being 9.8%, or 10.2%)
wait? the polls tightened between IA and NH?
stop the presses…
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I’m on board this train with you. The anticipation is always overbuilt exactly like how people thought that Scott Walker would be a formidable force to be reckoned with but then his clown side appeared and so on.
I won’t rejoice and rub anything in anyone’s nose if Hillary does do exactly this because I like Sanders and we need him. This is just being realistic about the landscape that he faces. His strengths are what carry him but his weaknesses will be his undoing. He’s trying to become a friend of the black man too late for it to matter, that one alone is huge.
BTW, I appreciate your efforts at not allowing the bullshit by some to pass, it is a worthwhile endeavor.