So he plans to duck debates by having more of them? Interesting logic there.
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You seem to be under the mistaken impression I was strictly talking about Iowa.
I wasnāt.
I was talking about the first 4 primary states. When was the last time a candidate dropped the first 4 contests and came back to win nationally? Like never? I think thatās a pretty strong statement that you canāt just blow the first four states off, and itās why the candidates spend so much time there.
Now thatās a āmake me feel good about my candidateā statement if I ever heard one.
Yes, delegates largely are awarded on a state by state basis, and are not awarded nationally, except for superdelegates (where Sanders is doing very, very badly).
But Iowa and NH are two of the whitest states demographically that we will hold elections. We wonāt see such a small minority make up until probably Vermont. And once we hit the states with larger Minority groups, Sanders is going to struggle.
And when people say āJust wait until people get to know Sandersā, after Iowa and NHā¦everything starts happening very fast. Sanders doesnāt get another year to campaign in states like he has in Iowa and NH. It gets consolidated down into daysā¦hours even if you take in to account the number of states holding elections on Super Tuesday.
The window for getting peopleā¦ACROSS THE COUNTRYā¦to know the candidates closes next Monday. What people know now, is 95% of what they are going to ever know.
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Speaking as someone who strongly favors Clinton for a multitude of reasons:
This thread basically is every person who has already weighed in repeatedly as to which candidate they prefer explaining why this jockeying backs the candidate they prefer and it makes the other one really look bad. You know what? It doesnāt. These are smart moves by both candidates.
For Clinton, it punches the idea that sheās afraid of more debates pretty square in the nose, and can be used to maintain momentum or perhaps even seize more if she does agree to the additional schedule.
For Sanders, this lets him look like heās actually good at negotiating things rather than posturing, which has been one of his repeated criticisms.
Hereās the upside of being on a center-leftist news website: there are a high number of informed posters who I recognize on a regular basis, and I learn a lot from a lot of you. Hereās the downside: weāre used to all using this as a venting post for punching on people that we deal with elsewhere and canāt punch back here. Normally, weāre 80% in agreement, so everythingās fine with that approach (even if I think some of the jokey insults are not the most clever or whatever).
For right now, however, we are not in heavy agreement. This is a very important issue to discuss, by all means, letās take it seriously. But weāre not going to get anywhere if we keep going into every one of these topics with baggage about how much subsets of one person or anotherās supporters are annoying us, or how much some superficial trait of the candidate ticks us off. Save that for private messages, save that for facebook, donāt say anything about it at all ā whatever. Itās not doing any of us any good here.
Substantial criticism that doesnāt descend into character attacks is whatās healthiest.
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Then either you are not paying attention or you are simply regurgitating a GOP meme. It is 50/50.
It is precisely this sort of tunnel vision by Bernie supporters that is exceptionally poor. They see no wrong at all in whatever Bernie says or does or thinks. That is simply dangerous. There has never been nor will there ever be a perfect presidential candidate or president. Bernieās appeal is limited. His support among minorities is quite poor. His support in the South is dismal. He was always likely to win NH (next door state to VT obviously). Heck he could squeak it out in Iowa. After that, he has a brick wall of states where he wonāt win in either primaries or the general election.
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That is a very disappointing response, to say the least.
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I keep telling people, if youāre feelinā a bern, Iām sure thereās an ointment for that. Or maybe a visit to Planned Parenthood will help; as long as itās not too establishment for them. Just trying to be helpful to my fellow Democrats.
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No, Iām just citing the historical reality. The way the rolling primaries are set up, itās all about seizing and carrying momentum. And again, by that I donāt just mean Iowa. But in this case, Iowa will be pivotal for Sanders because itās all about exceeding expectations to reshape the narrative. Heās already poised to crush Clinton in New Hampshire based on current polls. Should he win Iowa, where theyāre currently in a dead heat, and already securing NH he wouldnāt even need to win South Carolina. Heād just need to outperform expectations to ride the wave of momentum. Thatās how presidential primaries work.
False.
Bernie told Rachel Maddowāon airāthat if the other two candidates agreed to do this debate that he would be there.
His exact words were āCount me in.ā
So in addition to being part of the Establishmentāheās a professional politicianāheās also not doing what he agreed to do on national television.
Sound to me like he either lied to Rachel, or heās a flip-flopper.
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What polling are you looking at that has Sanders wining in SC and NV? Because I certainly havenāt seen it. Hell, the averages donāt even have him winning in IAā¦merely closing the gap. And underneath those numbers in IA, it doesnāt paint a pretty picture. Sanders support is geographically concentrated. And I am sorry, but he isnāt going to be awarded more delegates for winning a college town by a whole bunch, and losing in all the rural districts.
South Carolina is not looking good for Bernie.
Nevada isnāt receiving a lot of polling, but the few polls coming out of there indicate the same pattern; Hillary leading by a roughly 2:1 margin.
See, what you are doing is precisely the same thing you were railing aboutā¦no national momentum. You are cherry picking the polling in the two most unrepresentative states of the Democratic partyās demographics and saying Sanders will do that everywhere.
He wonāt. He may play well with white voters, but we do NOT want to make the General election about who can attract the most white votesā¦Democrats or republicans.
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As I understand it, the way things stand right now is that Hillary has expressed support, in general, for more debates, but has only committed to this one proposed additional debate in New Hampshire.
Bernie has committed to four additional debates.
Martin appears willing to commit to as many debates as possible.
Seems like we should be able to look forward to at least four additional debates. Unless Hillary refuses.
Ballās in your court. Hillary.
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Its pretty simple ā heās calculated it doesnāt serve him well to debate her again when he is on the rise. It might be worthwhile for voters to take a good look at the two of them on the eve of the caucus, but that apparently is not his main concern.
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No, its really not. Presidential primaries are about amassing the most delegates until you have 50%+1 of the delegates. And Bernie is already behind the curve on superdelegates. That is why he not only needs to win Iowa and NHā¦he needs to win them BIG. Like 70-30 big. And that sort of delegate count would only keep him on par.
If he wins or loses a squeaker in IA, and wins in NH by roughly 20 points and then loses SC by 20-30 pointsā¦he wonāt be leading in delegatesā¦he will be losing, without much of a path forward to make up the differences.
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Um, Ralph; of course heĀ“s a politician, and has been for his whole political life. Are you suggesting that wrangling over debate details, when he has the apparent advantage at this point, means that somehow his political positions are not sincerely held? Pretty weak tea.
Like I said, he doesnāt have to win South Carolina if he wins Iowa and NH. He just has to exceed expectations.
I never said heās leading in Iowa, just that itās a statistical dead heat. It could go either way.
Iām not cherry picking anything, Iām explaining to you how presidential primaries work based on historical precedent. What youāre doing is trying to cite data like superdelegate count and ānational momentumā when thereās no such thing.
Hillary has commanding leads in both Nevada and South Carolina.
And in every other state thatās been polled.
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LOL.
No, the ball is in Sandersā court. MSNBC has already scheduled this debate. Hillary and Martin have both agreed to this debate. Now, the guy who was crying for more debates the mostā¦is balking at this debate, and instead trying to send up a flag about some future, unscheduled without sponsors (and you need to have someone commit to putting it on the air)ā¦and still not saying he will be in this debate.
What your guy needs to do is sayā¦āI will be at the MSNBC debateā. Which he doesnāt do in this statement. This will not and is not playing well for the Democratic base, who are largely on board that we want more debates and better scheduled debates. Now that we are getting oneā¦Bernie wants to pout about it. Itās even causing consternation with the Sanders ranks.
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Come on, Lio. Hillary, or any other pol for that matter, would be doing something similar if the facts were reversed. It might make one feel better to try to spin this into some great hypocrisy, but to not try and press his advantage would be political malpractice.
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Ugh. Winning a national election goes way beyond just āexceed expectations.ā Perhaps in a regional election, thatāll get you over the finish line But this is a different animal and he HAS to start racking up delegates. Statistical dead heats and exceeding expectations arenāt going to be enough.
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Kinda hard to square that with the fact that heās just committed to debating her four more times (in addition to the two already scheduled) regardless of who is ahead or behind or rising or falling in the polls. and including this debate that Hillary wants, right before the NH primary. Meanwhile, so far Hillary has only committed to this one proposed additional debate in New Hampshire, which also happens to be the one where sheās trailing badly. But you think itās Bernie who is trying to game the debates based on current poll position? You might want to re-think that.
Hopefully Hillary will agree to the additional debates, and this will be a moot point. She says she wants more debates, so as long as sheās telling the truth about that, there should be no problem.
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