Discussion for article #229530
Nate Cohn in today’s NYT shows pretty convincingly that the polls tend to underestimate the Democratic vote by around 2%. effectively this race is thus a tie. Given the change from in person to mail voting this year in Colorado, no one has a clue which way this will go. If mail voting increases Democratic turnout, Udall could actually be ahead.
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I have a hard time believing Udall only wins Latino vote by 3%.
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The breakout on the Q poll tells you everything you need to know there. No way Udall is only winning women by 6 and hell will freeze over before he loses men by 20 points
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Udall leads with women by about 20 points, and with Hispanics about 70% to 20%.
He trails with men by about 15 points.
As was noted above, Democrats are under-represented in these polls by anywhere from 2% to 4%.
And Udall has a great ground game, created by Sen. Bennet, who used it to win in Colorado, when all the polls said he would lose badly.
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That is ridiculous and not to be believed at all. The polls this time are the most outrageous of any I can remember. Who the hell does Survey USA think they are fooling with that 3% of the Hispanic vote? The Hispanics may be a little angry with the President for the high deportations, and not going through with the EO until after the election, but they sure as hell know that the Cons are going to royally screw them and would not be voting for them in that high of a number. NO WAY!
Coloradan here. I’ll be stunned if Gardner wins, by any margin. Quinnipiac is off the mark, largely clueless with their likely-voter model in CO. Their polls here have been wildly inconsistent and reflect their own confusion about how things work here. Udall may not win by much, but he’s still the local favorite with good reason.
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Not interested in frenzied PollDancing…
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Is it just me, or are the polls looking totally insane this year? There is no way that Udall is only winning the Hispanic vote by 3%. I have never seen Hispanics so organized as they are right now, and they sure as hell are not going to be voting for the party that will not only do nothing about immigration, but will get rid of the EO order the President signed to help at least some of the dreamers.
Hispanics are not the same as these wishy washy people who call themselves “independents”, and whom I think of like the boyfriend who can’t commit. They do not vote stupidly, changing party every two years, because they think the GOP is going to give them what they have not gotten yet. They may not be happy that this President has not done more on immigration, but they sure as hell know what their lot would be if the GOP gets in power. They do listen to what they have been saying about them for the last 6 years.
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Udall might pull this fucker out.
Gardner looks like the bastard child of Ralph Reed and Sarah Palin
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Right! Still don’t get how the Colorado numbers keep shifting, given that most people have already voted by mail. Are they lying to pollsters about how they’ve already voted, or are pollsters contacting only the stragglers who haven’t mailed in their ballots yet?
Can anyone tell me?
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Sigh.
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In the 2012 POTUS race,the poll aggregate understimated the Dem vote by 2% and overestimated the GOP vote by 1%. That was supposed to be the year that GOPs really amped up their GOTV game too.
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Don’t think for a minute that he’s not exactly what you describe.
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I think it has gotten to the point where the polls are useless. Between cell phones and caller-id, very few respondents.
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I’ll believe polls when my phone rings!
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I would only trust the PPP poll. They have an excellent track record. The Qunnipiac poll, as discussed before, their methodology has “skewed” the poll.
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Totally agree with that. I don’t think they can be as accurate as they were in the past.
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I strongly suspect that if all these pollsters were still publishing their registered voter numbers rather than likely voter numbers, they would all pretty much agree and that those numbers would all end up being more accurate than their likely voter screen numbers.
The wild variations we’re seeing are indicative of the inability of pollsters to agree on what factors make one a likely voter in this election which, in turn, is powerful evidence that no one should be using them. (Except for that one pollster who will turn out to have been right after the votes are counted, of course.)
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Well, 2012 was the year of Orca, the carcass that washed up on shore.
They may have spent a lot of money on that, but it probably had a negative effect if anything on their GOTV efforts.
I remember a local channel in Florida did an interview with some Dem organizer, and he was out there are the polls, barking out orders in the background of the interview, pumped and busy as all get out.
Then they interviewed a republican organizer. Old guy sitting at home saying "Hey, I mailed out the pamphlets they sent me, what else do they expect me to do?’
It said it all.
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