Wow, with this info plus the fact that Chuck and Nancy got better ratings on the teevee, and the impending indictment of Turd Jr is going to just ruin Individual-1âs day.
Any bets that the trip to the border doesnât go well??
A word of caution: voter memories are famously short. Previous shutdowns were also unpopular, but nothing much changed when election day rolled around. Nate Silver did some interesting work on this not long ago, as I recall.
Combine this with the recent revelations that his stupid fucking wall was dreamt into being only as an immigration memory aide for his plaqued, addled brain. The fact that the wall will eventually be one of his many very big, very strong downfalls is poetic.
Pelosi should start publicly appealing to Mitch McConnell to end the shutdown, ignoring the Dotard. Reminding McConnel that he likes being majority leader. Trump has no power to end the shutdown without looking bad, McConnell does.
Finally, something for Susan Collins to be legitimately concerned about.
[quote=âdmjesseph, post:3, topic:82870â]
Previous shutdowns were also unpopular, but nothing much changed when election day rolled around.
[/quote]This is true, but it comes with several caveats.
First, our sample size is small. There have been half a dozen shutdowns of any consequence over the last few decades. Itâs dangerous to take such a small sample and conclude that no shutdown will ever have lasting electoral effect.
Second, in past shutdowns, elected officials have felt burned by the stove. They have backtracked to a degree, or moderated their position, or rethought whether this was a battle they wanted to pick, similar to how a president usually reacts to a bad midterm performance. Trump has not shown any inclination to do this, so to the extent we are considering past shutdowns predictive, we are extrapolating out of sample. This should be done with great caution.
Finally, the public tends to latch onto simple, self-reinforcing narratives. Complex, nuanced subjects tend to recede into memory; stories that emphasize what we already think or believe tend to float to the surface. âNone of us want a stupid wall, but Trump threw a temper tantrum to try to get itâ is one of those brief, self-contained narratives which takes ten seconds to say and ten minutes to try to refute. These are often the most damaging storylines.
Past shutdowns have been comparatively complex, nuanced topics. Consider the difference between âHillary used a private server!!!1â and the various explanations, justifications, and caveats. Which one stuck in the public consciousness?
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All of that is to say itâs definitely possible, even likely, that this shutdown will have minimal electoral effects in 2020. But donât mix up âlikelyâ with âcertainâ.
Itâs not going to get better for republicans. Hope to see that blue wave gaining power going into 2020.
Like I said, this ends when 4 GOP Senators tell McConnell they will not vote to confirm any judges until the government is reopened. Until they use their hammer, nothing is changing.
I expect Trump to declare a national emergency today.
This would appear to be the proverbial writing on the wall. But one would have to have actually read the Bible to understand the metaphor, something we can only assume has not occurred based on observed behaviors.
Only the âORANGE WAVEâ means anything.
Full Putin ahead,fuck the the American public.
Is it time for a re-write of The Turn of the Screw, with pResident tRump as the governess and Cory Gardner and Susan Collins as the children?
If so, I want Susan Collins to die more than I want Cory Gardner to die. Killing them both off is a perfectly acceptable compromise for me.
Disclaimer: Iâm talking 'bout literature here. While I donât advocate actually killing anyone, seeing both of these assholes lose in 2020 (a political death) would do my heart some good.
Are they forecasting rain?
Weather forecasts in the SW routinely differ from conditions on the ground.
Havenât heard anything about rain. Perhaps spit?
But seriously, what are the chances he wonât make at least one tone-deaf faux pas?
These polls indicate that Mitch McConnell has been too cute by half in his strategy to make Trump walk the plank while assiduously hewing to the shifting party line to avoid primary challengers. He has already put several of his incumbents in a hole to start the 19-20 election cycle. Stacey Abrams can now probably seek the Senate seat and beat Perdue. Mark Begich can seek the Senate seat and have a decent shot at Perdue. McSally? Come on, yo! This has quickly become a disaster for the GOP.
100% he will most definitely phuk up.
However I would read Mitch McConnellâs obituary with great pleasure shortly befor I pissed on his grave
I gotta think about that. Does today end in âyâ?
So have we impeached the motherfucker yet? These are great fucking numbers. hahahahaha