Discussion for article #229321
No poll tracker on this one? The new poll is the new narrative? With a pic of Hagan looking worried, of course.
This shtick is getting old, TPM.
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WRAL-TV Poll had Hagan up 46% - 43%. It was conducted from October 16 to October 20. This Marist Poll was conducted from October 19 to October 23. PPP conducted a poll from October 16 to October 18 and found Hagan up 46% to 43%. Seems like Hagan’s probably still ahead.
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Mentioning those or showing the averages would interfere with the “DOOOOOM!!!” narrative. We can’t have that, can we?
YouGov meanwhile shows Shaheen up 5 over Brown. Will that get a mention after the “Brown surging in sleeper race!” hysterics a few days back?
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Right, and Yougov hardly leans left. The polling is one thing but their comments section is chock full of nuts. They are hopeless.
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Ties go to the Dems, that is the trend and the new rule. Scientifically speaking I’m giving my prediction a 50/50 chance of probability and a definite maybe on likely being correct.
Based strictly on the “ick” factor, the Republicans are icky and all that they have going for them is that they give the haters something else to vote for to fulfill their hate and that is all they’ve got, really.
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Hagan up 42% - 40% among Registered Voters in this same poll.
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YouGov/NYT/CBS 10/16-10/23: Hagan 44% Tillis 41%
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All of the polling for months has been within margin of error. It’s a close race, rest is statistical noise. If I had a criticism of Hagan, it would be that she hasn’t talked as strongly on the issue of education this fall as she did this summer. She was killing him on that.
OMFG!!! A poll showing variance within the margin of error from the previous poll!!! Quick, break out the gigantic fonts and the most unflattering picture of Hagan in our photo library!!!
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Overall, if you average the polls they do in fact understate the Democratic vote by around 2%. So, a race tied in the polls will generally be won by the Democrats. Even a race where the Republican is up by 1 will generally go the other way.
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Looks like a good place to throw money. It’s gong to be a matter of turnout.
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At this point, most of any GOTV effort should have already been largely paid for. Organizing a strong ground game requires up front investments and time. Sure a little bit of extra money in the final weeks always helps, but its probably better spent on ads/mailers/phone banks, than it is in hiring some new people (who you then have to train…clock is ticking) to drive your ground game.
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Largely because of the LV screens used. Likely Voter screens ignore voter registration drives, for one example. If a person has never voted again, most polling companies immediately put that down as not likely to vote…never mind they have already shown enough effort to get registered.
This year is a bit crazier too, because nobody seems to have a good handle on what the electorate will look like. It’s not the 2010 wave that the pundits were talking in the spring, but its probably not the 2012 electorate, either.
Personally, I think its even more complicated than that. I think this year has largely been very local. Each race is pretty much a stand alone, there really is no unifying national message from either side. So while Nunn is looking good in Georgia, Braley is sweating in Iowa. Because she is running against a neophte the was eager to embrace being a mini Mitt caricature,and Braley is running against a woman draped in a flag that has shown astounding message discipline to basically not say stupid stuff and ignore all previous stupid stuff said.
Neither race has much of a unifying theme between them. And that is pretty much the same in all the battle grounds.
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And in other NC political news, this freshman state senator has a great career ahead of him.
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There are no independents, that is cover for GOPers seeking asylum from the Tea Party and Libertarians, which also do not exist.
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Most of the tight races will come down to how much of the vote Republicans can suppress.
I voted for Hagan Saturday, along with a straight Democratic ticket. I was surprised the voter machines had paper, memory stick and tape backup.
A big sign reminded voters that voter ID will be law in 2016. Since there’s only one impersonation fraud per 15 million, North Carolina’s looking for less than half a culprit.
Good ol’ “less gubmint” GOPers.
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Why do the damned pollsters and the media have it in for the Democrats? We make the nation work and the Republicans make us work. (almost a bumper sticker)
Are get rich quick schemes all that the other side gives a fiddlers fuck about?
How can North Carolinians look at Thom Tillis and not recognize a rascal? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-tRR6wkNoo