Agree with all of that with the added points that states with close Senate races are going to look different from states without close Senate races because of both the Koch money and the Democratic GOTV effort and states with a close Senate race and a governor’s race at the same time are going to look even more different. I’d hate to be a pollster in this race. Well–okay, I could be a Republican pollster: all I’d have to do is take a poll using any old methodology and then arbitrarily add points in the R column, because that’s what the client wants and that’s whe he’s paying for.
I plan to vote early and often for Hagan!
I would recommend the license plate methodology for that type of work. Basically it consists of going outside and writing down the numbers off of a few license plates and then submit those as your polling data. Very cost effective method of doing polling.
Though a little embarrassing if you copy vanity plate numbers and you show someone getting AS% of the vote.
Hey, remember Kramer getting the vanity plate, “ASSMAN” by accident in Seinfeld? That turned out ok